Northern Colorado vs. UC Davis: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Northern Colorado0-1

07

UC Davis0-1

▸0059

Final

Aggie StadiumConference game

	1	2	3	4	T
NORT	0	0	0	7	7
UC D	14	10	28	7	59

NORTTeam statsUC D

283Total yards622

103Pass313

180Rush309

13First downs29

4-153rd down6-9

2Turnovers1

28:19Possession31:41

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:41NORTCaden Meis 2 Yd Run (Hunter Green Kick)7–59
• Q4 12:27UC DCarter Vargas 2 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–59
• Q3 3:19UC DSamuel Gbatu Jr. 13 Yd pass from Grant Harper (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–52
• Q3 4:35UC DWinston Williams 27 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–45
• Q3 8:19UC DJosh Gale 40 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–38
• Q3 11:46UC DLan Larison 8 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–31
• Q2 1:58UC DHunter Ridley 23 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 9:24UC DLan Larison 3 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:49UC DLan Larison 49 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:15UC DTrent Tompkins 7 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–7

How the model called it

Market line

UC D −23.5

Against the number

UC D covered

line UC D −23.5

What the numbers say

• NORT lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 12% explosive on a 35% success rate

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

UC D 100%50%NORT 100%

Kickoff151 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

UC D (top)NORT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UC D 100%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

UC D −23.5

Closing total

49.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NORT 7 – 59 UC D

Leaders

Northern Colorado

• PassKia'i Keone 13/24, 99 YDS, 2 INT
• RushJonah Chong 5 CAR, 64 YDS
• RecCharles Garrison 2 REC, 37 YDS

UC Davis

• PassMiles Hastings 20/26, 285 YDS, 3 TD
• RushLan Larison 14 CAR, 143 YDS, 3 TD
• RecSamuel Gbatu Jr. 5 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

26.3sper snap · slower the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

137

Points / snap

0.48

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

UC D up 52 entering the 4th quarter. Across 40 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

UC D went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WNorth Dakota State vs Western Illinois52-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg52-0WMontana vs Morehead State59-2WGeorgia Tech vs VMI59-7WUT Martin vs Houston Christian66-7

Fourth downs

11 calls

UC D gave up 0.3 points to the model on fourth down.NORT 7/7 · UC D 2/3 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Northern Colorado vs. UC Davis?

Northern Colorado 7, UC Davis 59.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (UC D) was correct.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NORT

UC D

35%

Success rate

58%

-0.23

EPA / pass

0.87

0.19

EPA / rush

0.29

36%

Early-down success

57%

28%

Pass success

66%

42%

Rush success

54%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

19%

17%

Stuffed rush rate

12%

45%

Pass rate

40%

6.6

Avg 3rd-down distance

4.7

NORT

6.6 yards to go on 3rd down

65 scrimmage snaps

UC D

4.7 yards to go on 3rd down

72 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NORT		UC D
283	Total yards	622
103	Passing yards	313
180	Rushing yards	309
13	First downs	29
4-15	3rd down	6-9
0-0	4th down	0-0
16/29	Comp/Att	23/29
3.6	Yards per pass	10.8
5.0	Yards per rush	7.2
2	Turnovers	1
1-15	Penalties	1-5
28:19	Possession	31:41

Fourth downs

11 calls

NORT

7/7 with the model

nothing given up

UC D

2/3 with the model

−0.3 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q2 13:58 UC D punt on 4th & 8 at NORT 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.30 points.

Every call, priced (11)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NORT 1/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UC D 9/14 scoring drives

UC DTD11 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1

NORTPUNT6 pl, 18 yds· own 25Q1

UC DTD4 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1

NORTINT10 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q1

UC DMISS4 pl, 3 yds· opp 18Q1

NORTEND3 pl, 1 yds· own 20Q1

UC DPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· opp 45Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 6Q2

UC DTD6 pl, 52 yds· own 48Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 2 yds· own 25Q2

UC DFG11 pl, 50 yds· own 40Q2

NORTMISS10 pl, 63 yds· own 25Q2

UC DEND2 pl, 8 yds· own 20Q2

NORTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 16Q3

UC DTD5 pl, 60 yds· own 40Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

UC DTD5 pl, 63 yds· own 37Q3

NORTPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q3

UC DTD5 pl, 72 yds· own 28Q3

NORTINT2 pl, 1 yds· own 25Q3

UC DTD2 pl, 15 yds· opp 15Q3

NORTPUNT6 pl, 14 yds· own 25Q3

UC DTD6 pl, 70 yds· own 30Q3

NORTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q4

UC DFUM7 pl, 50 yds· own 25Q4

NORTPUNT5 pl, 30 yds· own 25Q4

UC DEND3 pl, 17 yds· own 3Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 7:41NORTCaden Meis 2 Yd Run (Hunter Green Kick)7–59
• Q4 12:27UC DCarter Vargas 2 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–59
• Q3 3:19UC DSamuel Gbatu Jr. 13 Yd pass from Grant Harper (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–52
• Q3 4:35UC DWinston Williams 27 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–45
• Q3 8:19UC DJosh Gale 40 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–38
• Q3 11:46UC DLan Larison 8 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–31
• Q2 1:58UC DHunter Ridley 23 Yd Field Goal 0–24
• Q2 9:24UC DLan Larison 3 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–21
• Q1 7:49UC DLan Larison 49 Yd Run (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–14
• Q1 11:15UC DTrent Tompkins 7 Yd pass from Miles Hastings (Hunter Ridley Kick)0–7

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →