Nicholls vs. Southern: Final Score & Recap

ReplayCommandBoxAnalyticsMatchup

Nicholls0-2

▸0051

Southern2-2

07

Final

Ace W. Mumford Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
NICH	24	14	13	0	51
SOUT	0	0	0	7	7

NICHTeam statsSOUT

402Total yards223

178Pass191

224Rush32

20First downs15

3-123rd down2-12

1Turnovers4

34:34Possession25:26

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:26SOUTJason Gabriel 23 Yd pass from Jalen Woods (Joshua Griffin Kick)51–7
• Q3 3:33NICHCorey Warren Jr. 7 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter PAT failed)51–0
• Q3 10:20NICHChristian McNees 38 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)45–0
• Q2 0:37NICHTreylin Whaley 11 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)38–0
• Q2 13:25NICHCollin Guggenheim 1 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)31–0
• Q1 2:27NICHQuincy Brown 27 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)24–0
• Q1 5:35NICHCollin Guggenheim 14 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)17–0
• Q1 7:46NICHGabe Showalter 39 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 13:06NICHChristian McNees 32 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)7–0

How the model called it

Market line

NICH −18.5

Against the number

NICH covered

line NICH −18.5

Win probability

ours solid · ESPN dashed

SOUT 100%50%NICH 100%

Kickoff155 plays →Final

Tap or hover on the chart to see play details

SOUT (top)NICH (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SOUT 0%

How the line closed

model vs market

Closing line

NICH −18.5

Closing total

49.5

Model line

—

Actual result

NICH 51 – 7 SOUT

Leaders

Nicholls

• PassPat McQuaide 12/18, 178 YDS, 4 TD
• RushCollin Guggenheim 16 CAR, 99 YDS, 2 TD
• RecChristian McNees 3 REC, 96 YDS, 2 TD

Southern

• PassJalen Woods 10/17, 98 YDS, 1 TD
• RushBarry Remo 5 CAR, 24 YDS
• RecDarren Morris 3 REC, 47 YDS

Tempo

what this pace leaves on the clock

24.1sper snap · in line with the national 24.5s

fastnational avgslow

Snaps run

132

Points / snap

0.44

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

NICH up 51 entering the 4th quarter. Across 74 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

NICH went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WEast Tennessee State vs UVA Wise61-0WTulane vs UAB71-20WMonmouth vs Hampton61-10WNorth Dakota State vs Western Illinois52-7WPresbyterian vs Virginia University Of Lynchburg52-0

Fourth downs

18 calls

SOUT gave up 1.8 points to the model on fourth down.NICH 7/8 · SOUT 6/9 agreed

FAQ

What was the final score of Nicholls vs. Southern?

Nicholls 51, Southern 7.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

No — the model picked SOUT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.

Situational splits

what the averages hide

NICH

SOUT

46%

Success rate

36%

0.51

EPA / pass

0.03

0.06

EPA / rush

-0.26

50%

Early-down success

42%

41%

Pass success

39%

48%

Rush success

30%

12%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

11%

11%

Stuffed rush rate

30%

32%

Pass rate

69%

8.4

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.9

NICH

8.4 yards to go on 3rd down

68 scrimmage snaps

SOUT

7.9 yards to go on 3rd down

64 scrimmage snaps

Team stats

the basics, from ESPN

NICH		SOUT
402	Total yards	223
178	Passing yards	191
224	Rushing yards	32
20	First downs	15
3-12	3rd down	2-12
1-1	4th down	0-2
12/19	Comp/Att	17/37
9.4	Yards per pass	5.2
5.1	Yards per rush	1.3
1	Turnovers	4
11-99	Penalties	10-74
34:34	Possession	25:26

Fourth downs

18 calls

NICH

7/8 with the model

−0.9 pts · −0.0% win prob

SOUT

6/9 with the model

−1.8 pts · −0.0% win prob

Costliest call

Q4 8:05 SOUT go for it on 4th & 17 at NICH 17. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.11 points.

Every call, priced (18)

Drive chart

every possession, start to finish

NICH 8/14 scoring drives← own end zone →SOUT 1/15 scoring drives

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 1Q1

NICHTD5 pl, 78 yds· own 22Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 21Q1

NICHPUNT5 pl, -11 yds· own 49Q1

NICHFG4 pl, 3 yds· opp 25Q1

SOUTFUM2 pl, 9 yds· own 23Q1

NICHTD3 pl, 40 yds· opp 40Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 1 yds· own 15Q1

NICHTD3 pl, 57 yds· own 43Q1

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 5 yds· own 12Q1

NICHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 48Q1

SOUTFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 13Q2

NICHTD2 pl, 11 yds· opp 11Q2

SOUTINT9 pl, 57 yds· own 25Q2

NICHPUNT10 pl, 33 yds· own 6Q2

SOUTINT9 pl, 48 yds· own 15Q2

NICHTD7 pl, 45 yds· opp 45Q2

SOUTUncateg1 pl, 0 yds· own 20Q2

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 24Q3

NICHTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q3

NICHTD10 pl, 49 yds· opp 49Q3

SOUTPUNT3 pl, 8 yds· own 24Q3

NICHPUNT3 pl, 3 yds· own 33Q3

SOUTDOWNS15 pl, 65 yds· own 9Q4

NICHINT6 pl, 6 yds· own 26Q4

SOUTTD4 pl, 39 yds· opp 39Q4

NICHPUNT3 pl, 7 yds· own 25Q4

SOUTUncateg2 pl, 8 yds· own 28Q4

Scoring plays

• Q4 3:26SOUTJason Gabriel 23 Yd pass from Jalen Woods (Joshua Griffin Kick)51–7
• Q3 3:33NICHCorey Warren Jr. 7 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter PAT failed)51–0
• Q3 10:20NICHChristian McNees 38 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)45–0
• Q2 0:37NICHTreylin Whaley 11 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)38–0
• Q2 13:25NICHCollin Guggenheim 1 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)31–0
• Q1 2:27NICHQuincy Brown 27 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)24–0
• Q1 5:35NICHCollin Guggenheim 14 Yd Run (Gabe Showalter Kick)17–0
• Q1 7:46NICHGabe Showalter 39 Yd Field Goal 10–0
• Q1 13:06NICHChristian McNees 32 Yd pass from Pat McQuaide (Gabe Showalter Kick)7–0

Model prediction

how the number is built

One or both teams lack a power rating (often an FCS opponent), so the model prediction is low-confidence for this game.

Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →