Boone Pickens StadiumClosing line: OKST -10 · TLSA covered
Fri, Sep 19, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLSA | 10 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 19 |
| OKST | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (OKST Elo 1202, TLSA Elo 1046) plus home-field advantage. That projects OKST -8.6 (74% to win), essentially in line with the market.
TLSA up 16 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,243 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulsa 19, Oklahoma State 12.
No — the model picked OKST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had OKST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Rodney Fields Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TLSA 6
Baylor Hayes pass complete to Brody Foley for 42 yds to the OKST 30 for a 1ST down
Zane Flores pass complete to Sam Jackson V for no gain to the OKST 48 Oklahoma State Penalty, Offensive pass interference (Josh Ford) to the OKST 37
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