| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TULN | 14 | 21 | 3 | 0 | 38 |
| MEM | 7 | 10 | 0 | 15 | 32 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (MEM Elo 1689, TULN Elo 1521) plus home-field advantage. That projects MEM -9.1 (75% to win) — 6.1 points of value on MEM versus the market line of -3.
TULN up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Tulane 38, Memphis 32.
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had MEM pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(10:47) Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete deep middle to #9 J.Hawkins caught at TUL12, for 55 yards to the TUL00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 10:38, 1ST DOWN #44 G.Spetic kick attempt good (H: #46 T.Gillis, LS: #40 J.Zarut)
(12:42) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass complete deep middle to #7 S.Preston caught at MEM21, for 65 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:33, 1ST DOWN #91 P.Durkin kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Clark, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)
(09:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass complete deep right to #5 A.Brown-Stephens caught at MEM12, for 54 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 09:26, 1ST DOWN #91 P.Durkin kick attempt good (H: #38 A.Clark, LS: #57 J.Arredondo)
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