Tulane vs. Memphis: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TULNTeam statsMEM
- Q4 7:49MEMBrady Kluse 25 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–32
- Q4 14:57MEMFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Brendon Lewis Pass to Matt Adcock for Two-Point Conversion)38–25
- Q3 11:51TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 38–17
- Q2 0:43TULNShazz Preston 5 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)35–17
- Q2 4:27MEMGianni Spetic 49 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q2 9:26TULNAnthony Brown-Stephens 54 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)28–14
- Q2 12:02TULNJake Retzlaff 33 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–14
- Q2 14:55MEMArrington Maiden 21 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:58TULNJavin Gordon 5 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:38MEMJamari Hawkins 55 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:33TULNShazz Preston 65 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassJake Retzlaff 16/23, 332 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJavin Gordon 12 CAR, 66 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBryce Bohanon 4 REC, 101 YDS
- PassBrendon Lewis 29/34, 317 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushArrington Maiden 5 CAR, 35 YDS, 1 TD
- RecCortez Braham Jr. 11 REC, 113 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTULN up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 7:49MEM +24%
Shotgun #2 B.Lewis pass complete deep right to #12 B.Kluse caught at TUL00, for 25 yards to the TUL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY TUL Offside declined
- Q2 12:02TULN +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff rush left for 33 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 9:26TULN +20%
No Huddle-Shotgun #12 J.Retzlaff pass complete deep right to #5 A.Brown-Stephens caught at MEM12, for 54 yards to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 14:55MEM +19%
No Huddle-Shotgun #7 A.Maiden rush middle for 21 yards gain to the TUL00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 4:58TULN +18%
Shotgun #23 J.Gordon rush left for 5 yards gain to the MEM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 4:59TULN +18%
#38 A.Clark punt 44 yards to the MEM28 fair catch by #5 S.Smith at MEM28
FAQ
What was the final score of Tulane vs. Memphis?
Tulane 38, Memphis 32.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked MEM, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| TULN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 457 | Total yards | 435 |
| 332 | Passing yards | 368 |
| 125 | Rushing yards | 67 |
| 17 | First downs | 23 |
| 4-11 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-2 |
| 16/24 | Comp/Att | 33/40 |
| 13.8 | Yards per pass | 9.2 |
| 3.9 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 10-74 | Penalties | 7-51 |
| 25:32 | Possession | 34:28 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:38 MEM go for it on 4th & 5 at TULN 12. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.40 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:49MEMBrady Kluse 25 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)38–32
- Q4 14:57MEMFrank Peasant 1 Yd Run (Brendon Lewis Pass to Matt Adcock for Two-Point Conversion)38–25
- Q3 11:51TULNPatrick Durkin 30 Yd Field Goal 38–17
- Q2 0:43TULNShazz Preston 5 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)35–17
- Q2 4:27MEMGianni Spetic 49 Yd Field Goal 28–17
- Q2 9:26TULNAnthony Brown-Stephens 54 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)28–14
- Q2 12:02TULNJake Retzlaff 33 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)21–14
- Q2 14:55MEMArrington Maiden 21 Yd Run (Gianni Spetic Kick)14–14
- Q1 4:58TULNJavin Gordon 5 Yd Run (Patrick Durkin Kick)14–7
- Q1 10:38MEMJamari Hawkins 55 Yd pass from Brendon Lewis (Gianni Spetic Kick)7–7
- Q1 12:33TULNShazz Preston 65 Yd pass from Jake Retzlaff (Patrick Durkin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MEM Elo 1689, TULN Elo 1521 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MEM -9.1 (74% to win) — 6.1 points clear of MEM's market line of -3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#104 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #94 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #39 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Memphis leads 25–16–1 · 31% have been one-possession games
| TULN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| +7.0 (#47) | CORE overall | +2.0 (#61) |
| +5 / -2 | offense / defense | +4 / +2 |
| 2.56 | points / drive | 2.73 |
| 2.20 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +2 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →