Toledo vs. Miami (OH): Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TOLTeam statsM-OH
- Q3 1:45M-OHDom Dzioban 26 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q3 8:31TOLDylan Cunanan 36 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q3 11:31TOLRyder Treadway 24 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:18TOLJacob Petersen 6 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–0
- Q2 5:59TOLChip Trayanum 3 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassTucker Gleason 18/31, 169 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushChip Trayanum 21 CAR, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- RecRyder Treadway 4 REC, 55 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHenry Hesson 11/38, 147 YDS, 3 INT
- RushJordan Brunson 9 CAR, 44 YDS
- RecKam Perry 4 REC, 69 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTOL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 5:59TOL +20%
#1 C.Trayanum rush left for 3 yards gain to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:18TOL +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete short left to #89 J.Petersen caught at MIA00, for 6 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 11:31TOL +8%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass complete deep middle to #11 R.Treadway caught at MIA00, for 24 yards to the MIA00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 15:00M-OH +5%
#38 K.McLaughlin kickoff 64 yards to the TOL01 #9 T.Rudolph return 21 yards to the TOL22 (#32 J.Schott) PENALTY TOL Holding declined MIA Personal Foul 5 yards from MIA…
FAQ
What was the final score of Toledo vs. Miami (OH)?
Toledo 24, Miami (OH) 3.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
| TOL | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| 312 | Total yards | 222 |
| 169 | Passing yards | 147 |
| 143 | Rushing yards | 75 |
| 15 | First downs | 15 |
| 7-14 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 2-6 |
| 18/31 | Comp/Att | 11/38 |
| 5.5 | Yards per pass | 3.9 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.3 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 7-68 | Penalties | 4-22 |
| 30:09 | Possession | 29:51 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:12 M-OH go for it on 4th & 10 at TOL 21. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.98 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q3 1:45M-OHDom Dzioban 26 Yd Field Goal 24–3
- Q3 8:31TOLDylan Cunanan 36 Yd Field Goal 24–0
- Q3 11:31TOLRyder Treadway 24 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)21–0
- Q2 0:18TOLJacob Petersen 6 Yd pass from Tucker Gleason (Dylan Cunanan Kick)14–0
- Q2 5:59TOLChip Trayanum 3 Yd Run (Dylan Cunanan Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (M-OH Elo 1460, TOL Elo 1591 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects M-OH +2.8 (44% to win) — 3.2 points clear of M-OH's market line of +6. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesToledo leads 24–21–1 · Toledo has won 2 straight · 43% have been one-possession games
| TOL | M-OH | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.3 (#19) | CORE overall | -6.0 (#81) |
| +3 / -15 | offense / defense | -7 / -1 |
| 2.25 | points / drive | 1.96 |
| 1.17 | allowed / drive | 1.91 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| -1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →