| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL | 0 | 14 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
| M-OH | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (M-OH Elo 1460, TOL Elo 1591) plus home-field advantage. That projects M-OH +2.8 (42% to win) — 3.2 points of value on M-OH versus the market line of +6.
TOL up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Toledo 24, Miami (OH) 3.
Yes — the model's pick (TOL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TOL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(07:56) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass intercepted by #26 E.Coppess at MIA00 QB hurried by #2 D.Bell, Touchback
(01:44) No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Gleason pass intercepted by #1 E.Blakey at MIA17, End Of Play
(03:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 H.Hesson pass intercepted by #0 N.Bowers at TOL15 broken up by #4 A.Smith #0 N.Bowers return 44 yards to the MIA41 (#70 J.Schorsch) PENALTY MIA Chop Block declined TOL Personal Foul (#93 M.Davis) 15 yards from TOL42 to TOL27
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