Temple vs. Charlotte: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
TEMTeam statsCLT
- Q4 0:57CLTZach Wilcke 10 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)49–14
- Q3 0:48TEMLouis Frye 73 Yd Fumble Return (Carl Hardin Kick)49–7
- Q3 6:00TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)42–7
- Q3 12:29TEMPeter Clarke 8 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)35–7
- Q2 1:52TEMKajiya Hollawayne 46 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)28–7
- Q2 9:45TEMAdrian Laing 64 Yd Interception Return (Carl Hardin Kick)21–7
- Q2 10:22TEMEvan Simon 5 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:38CLTGus McGee 2 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:38TEMColin Chase 11 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassEvan Simon 15/22, 194 YDS, 3 TD
- RushJay Ducker 9 CAR, 114 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKajiya Hollawayne 5 REC, 85 YDS, 1 TD
- PassGrayson Loftis 10/22, 108 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJake Davids 13 CAR, 42 YDS
- RecJaven Nicholas 5 REC, 50 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTEM up 42 ~12 min left (4th qtr). Across 157 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 10:22TEM +20%
Evan Simon run for 5 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
- Q1 1:38CLT +19%
Grayson Loftis pass complete to Gus McGee for 2 yds for a TD (Liam Boyd KICK)
- Q1 7:38TEM +17%
Evan Simon pass complete to Colin Chase for 11 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
- Q2 9:45TEM +15%
Grayson Loftis pass intercepted Adrian Laing return for 64 yds for a TD (Carl Hardin KICK)
- Q3 14:17TEM +10%
PENALTY CLT Delay Of Game 5 yards from CLT28 to CLT23. NO PLAY
FAQ
What was the final score of Temple vs. Charlotte?
Temple 49, Charlotte 14.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TEM) was correct.
| TEM | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| 384 | Total yards | 357 |
| 212 | Passing yards | 158 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 199 |
| 18 | First downs | 21 |
| 2-9 | 3rd down | 6-16 |
| 2-2 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 16/23 | Comp/Att | 15/29 |
| 9.2 | Yards per pass | 5.4 |
| 5.7 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 3-40 | Penalties | 3-20 |
| 25:16 | Possession | 34:44 |
Costliest call
Q1 12:37 TEM punt on 4th & 1 at TEM 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.15 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:57CLTZach Wilcke 10 Yd Run (Liam Boyd Kick)49–14
- Q3 0:48TEMLouis Frye 73 Yd Fumble Return (Carl Hardin Kick)49–7
- Q3 6:00TEMJay Ducker 1 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)42–7
- Q3 12:29TEMPeter Clarke 8 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)35–7
- Q2 1:52TEMKajiya Hollawayne 46 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)28–7
- Q2 9:45TEMAdrian Laing 64 Yd Interception Return (Carl Hardin Kick)21–7
- Q2 10:22TEMEvan Simon 5 Yd Run (Carl Hardin Kick)14–7
- Q1 1:38CLTGus McGee 2 Yd pass from Grayson Loftis (Liam Boyd Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:38TEMColin Chase 11 Yd pass from Evan Simon (Carl Hardin Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CLT Elo 1143, TEM Elo 1241 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CLT +1.5 (47% to win) — 8.0 points clear of CLT's market line of +9.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| TEM | CLT | |
|---|---|---|
| -11.9 (#100) | CORE overall | -33.1 (#135) |
| -3 / +9 | offense / defense | -23 / +10 |
| 2.16 | points / drive | 0.88 |
| 3.17 | allowed / drive | 2.98 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 40% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →