Middle Tennessee vs. Ole Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MTSUTeam statsMISS
- Q4 9:44MISSAntwane Wells Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)3–52
- Q3 3:10MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)3–45
- Q3 6:00MISSMatt Jones 9 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)3–38
- Q2 0:15MTSUZeke Rankin 32 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 3:07MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–31
- Q2 10:52MISSJaxson Dart 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:10MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 11 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–17
- Q1 8:22MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 11 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:30MISSCaden Davis 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- MTSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and MISS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 11.8 vs 3rd & 8.3
- PassNicholas Vattiato 21/33, 209 YDS, 1 INT
- RushTerry Wilkins 7 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecHolden Willis 6 REC, 93 YDS
- PassJaxson Dart 25/27, 377 YDS, 1 TD
- RushHenry Parrish Jr. 14 CAR, 165 YDS, 4 TD
- RecTre' Harris 9 REC, 130 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMISS up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 167 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 8:22MISS +9%
Henry Parrish Jr. run for 11 yds for a TD (Caden Davis KICK)
- Q1 2:10MISS +5%
DAVIS, Caden PAT kick attempt is good, score nullified by penalty. PENALTY OLE Holding on ACKER, Eli enforced 10 yards from the MTS3 to the MTS13. NO PLAY (replay the…
FAQ
What was the final score of Middle Tennessee vs. Ole Miss?
Middle Tennessee 3, Ole Miss 52.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MISS) was correct.
| MTSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| 278 | Total yards | 655 |
| 250 | Passing yards | 397 |
| 28 | Rushing yards | 258 |
| 18 | First downs | 34 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 7-9 |
| 1-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 25/40 | Comp/Att | 27/31 |
| 6.3 | Yards per pass | 12.8 |
| 1.1 | Yards per rush | 6.1 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 8-58 | Penalties | 8-80 |
| 33:03 | Possession | 26:57 |
Costliest call
Q4 12:40 MTSU go for it on 4th & 6 at MISS 6. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.10 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 9:44MISSAntwane Wells Jr. 18 Yd pass from Jaxson Dart (Caden Davis Kick)3–52
- Q3 3:10MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 1 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)3–45
- Q3 6:00MISSMatt Jones 9 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)3–38
- Q2 0:15MTSUZeke Rankin 32 Yd Field Goal 3–31
- Q2 3:07MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–31
- Q2 10:52MISSJaxson Dart 3 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–24
- Q1 2:10MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 11 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–17
- Q1 8:22MISSHenry Parrish Jr. 11 Yd Run (Caden Davis Kick)0–10
- Q1 11:30MISSCaden Davis 33 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (MISS Elo 1658, MTSU Elo 1400 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects MISS -12.7 (80% to win) — 29.8 points clear of MTSU's market line of -42.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| MTSU | MISS | |
|---|---|---|
| -27.4 (#130) | CORE overall | +29.1 (#4) |
| -10 / +17 | offense / defense | +13 / -16 |
| 1.46 | points / drive | 3.20 |
| 3.36 | allowed / drive | 1.21 |
| 30% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →