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Terry Wilkins
Terry Wilkins

#4Terry Wilkins

RB·Middle Tennessee·2024

Terry Wilkins is a Explosive Back for Middle Tennessee. Terry's 2024 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 54 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

  • Usage share (volume)0.52
    Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
  • EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
    Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
  • Total EPA (value)0.41
    Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Terry Wilkins's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing
214 Rush yards1 Rush TD54 Carries4.0 Yards/carry
Receiving
13 Receptions69 Rec yards1 Rec TD5.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

  • Efficiency0
  • Volume27
  • Explosiveness20
  • Consistency36
  • Receiving60
Player type
Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities
Peer percentiles
Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg
Game-to-game consistency36th %ile · below avg
Key findings
  • ▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
  • ▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
  • ▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
  • ▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.35 from the first to second half of the season.
  • ▸Peak game: 0.89 EPA/play in Wk 14 vs Florida International (SP+ -12).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗
Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

+0.890−0.89Wk 1 vs Tennessee Tech: +0.09 EPA/play1Wk 2 vs Ole Miss: -0.12 EPA/play2Wk 3 vs Western Kentucky: -0.14 EPA/play3Wk 4 vs Duke: -0.03 EPA/play4Wk 5 vs Memphis: +0.23 EPA/play5Wk 7 vs Louisiana Tech: -0.01 EPA/play7Wk 8 vs Kennesaw State: -0.18 EPA/play8Wk 9 vs Jacksonville State: +0.02 EPA/play9Wk 11 vs Liberty: +0.80 EPA/play11Wk 13 vs New Mexico State: +0.27 EPA/play13Wk 14 vs Florida International: +0.89 EPA/play14
EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost
WkOpponentResultOpp SP+CarRush YdsAvgRush TDRecRec YdsRec TDEPA/play
1vsTennessee TechW32-25—4184.50———0.09
2@Ole MissL3-5227.97192.701-50-0.12
3vsWestern KentuckyL21-49-2.25183.602110-0.14
4vsDukeL17-455.613423.202140-0.03
5@MemphisL7-249.65173.4141500.23
7@Louisiana TechL21-48-11.64112.80100-0.01
8vsKennesaw StateW14-5-25.14112.80———-0.18
9@Jacksonville StateL20-42-1.0242.0011100.02
11vsLibertyL17-370.23196.3011710.80
13vsNew Mexico StateL21-36-19.06477.801600.27
14vsFlorida InternationalL24-35-12.1188.00———0.89

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy
Overall
9.4%
Passing plays
3.1%
Rushing plays
19.0%
Standard downs
10.8%
Passing downs
6.7%
EPA by down type
Standard downs
0.16
Passing downs
0.11
Pass / Rush EPA
0.44 / 0.08

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

EPA = expected points added (opponent-adjusted). NIL estimates are model-based ranges, not reported deals. Data: CollegeFootballData. Not betting advice.