Navy vs. Notre Dame: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NAVYTeam statsND
- Q4 3:33NAVYEvan Warren 31 Yd Field Goal 3–42
- Q4 11:54NDDeion Colzie 25 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–42
- Q3 9:36NDJaden Greathouse 20 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:13NDJayden Thomas 14 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–28
- Q2 10:00NDJaden Greathouse 35 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:03NDJadarian Price 19 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:26NDAudric Estime 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTai Lavatai 3/6, 43 YDS
- RushDaba Fofana 15 CAR, 56 YDS
- RecBrandon Chatman 2 REC, 41 YDS
- PassSam Hartman 19/23, 251 YDS, 4 TD
- RushAudric Estime 16 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecJaden Greathouse 3 REC, 68 YDS, 2 TD
FAQ
What was the final score of Navy vs. Notre Dame?
Navy 3, Notre Dame 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.
| NAVY | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| 169 | Total yards | 444 |
| 43 | Passing yards | 253 |
| 126 | Rushing yards | 191 |
| 12 | First downs | 27 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 5-7 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 3/7 | Comp/Att | 20/25 |
| 6.1 | Yards per pass | 10.1 |
| 2.6 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-26 | Penalties | 1-10 |
| 33:14 | Possession | 26:46 |
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:33NAVYEvan Warren 31 Yd Field Goal 3–42
- Q4 11:54NDDeion Colzie 25 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–42
- Q3 9:36NDJaden Greathouse 20 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–35
- Q2 0:13NDJayden Thomas 14 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–28
- Q2 10:00NDJaden Greathouse 35 Yd pass from Sam Hartman (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:03NDJadarian Price 19 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–14
- Q1 8:26NDAudric Estime 1 Yd Run (Spencer Shrader Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ND Elo 1733, NAVY Elo 1471 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects ND -10.5 (76% to win) — 10.0 points clear of NAVY's market line of -20.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2023
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesNotre Dame leads 84–13–1 · Notre Dame has won 8 straight · 30% have been one-possession games
| NAVY | ND | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.9 (#116) | CORE overall | +29.3 (#5) |
| -15 / +2 | offense / defense | +14 / -15 |
| 1.30 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 1.78 | allowed / drive | 1.44 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -21 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →