Ball State vs. James Madison: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BALLTeam statsJMU
- Q4 2:40JMUJobi Malary 32 Yd Run (Max Lipinski Kick)7–63
- Q4 10:55JMUTaylor Thompson 22 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–56
- Q3 7:19JMUAlonza Barnett III 18 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–49
- Q3 9:45JMUCam Ross 26 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–42
- Q3 13:58JMUEric O'Neill 27 Yd Interception Return (Noe Ruelas PAT failed)7–35
- Q2 4:20JMUYamir Knight 10 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–29
- Q1 1:51JMUOmarion Dollison 5 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–22
- Q1 3:34BALLTanner Koziol 15 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Carson Holmer Kick)7–15
- Q1 6:54JMUGeorge Pettaway 24 Yd Run (Taylor Thompson Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 10:15JMUYamir Knight 12 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassKadin Semonza 22/35, 168 YDS, 1 TD, 3 INT
- RushBraedon Sloan 14 CAR, 72 YDS
- RecTanner Koziol 9 REC, 78 YDS, 1 TD
- PassAlonza Barnett III 20/28, 280 YDS, 5 TD
- RushWayne Knight 6 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecTaylor Thompson 5 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJMU up 42 entering the 4th quarter. Across 167 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Ball State vs. James Madison?
Ball State 7, James Madison 63.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JMU) was correct.
| BALL | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| 250 | Total yards | 506 |
| 173 | Passing yards | 286 |
| 77 | Rushing yards | 220 |
| 19 | First downs | 29 |
| 7-16 | 3rd down | 9-10 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 23/38 | Comp/Att | 21/29 |
| 4.6 | Yards per pass | 9.9 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 6.5 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 3-20 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 33:41 | Possession | 26:19 |
Costliest call
Q2 8:52 BALL go for it on 4th & 20 at JMU 34. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.78 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:40JMUJobi Malary 32 Yd Run (Max Lipinski Kick)7–63
- Q4 10:55JMUTaylor Thompson 22 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–56
- Q3 7:19JMUAlonza Barnett III 18 Yd Run (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–49
- Q3 9:45JMUCam Ross 26 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–42
- Q3 13:58JMUEric O'Neill 27 Yd Interception Return (Noe Ruelas PAT failed)7–35
- Q2 4:20JMUYamir Knight 10 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–29
- Q1 1:51JMUOmarion Dollison 5 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)7–22
- Q1 3:34BALLTanner Koziol 15 Yd pass from Kadin Semonza (Carson Holmer Kick)7–15
- Q1 6:54JMUGeorge Pettaway 24 Yd Run (Taylor Thompson Run for Two-Point Conversion)0–15
- Q1 10:15JMUYamir Knight 12 Yd pass from Alonza Barnett III (Noe Ruelas Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JMU Elo 1734, BALL Elo 1184 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JMU -24.4 (94% to win) — 2.9 points clear of JMU's market line of -21.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| BALL | JMU | |
|---|---|---|
| -21.5 (#125) | CORE overall | +3.9 (#52) |
| -5 / +16 | offense / defense | -5 / -9 |
| 2.01 | points / drive | 2.39 |
| 3.63 | allowed / drive | 1.32 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 20% |
| +8 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →