#14Braedon Sloan

RB·Ball State·2024

Braedon Sloan is a Explosive Back for Ball State. Braedon's 2024 season ranks in the 20th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 174 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Braedon Sloan's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Rushing

597 Rush yards4 Rush TD150 Carries4.0 Yards/carry

Receiving

29 Receptions329 Rec yards1 Rec TD11.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs RB peers

Efficiency20
Volume64
Explosiveness20
Consistency66
Receiving63

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)20th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency66th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸3 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.57 EPA/play in Wk 11 vs Miami (OH) (SP+ 1).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2016	292	0.340	4.3	99.3
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Breece Hall	Iowa State	2020	301	0.340	4.5	102.3
James Flanders	Tulsa	2016	266	0.390	4.9	103.7

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	vsMissouri State	W42-34	—	21	103	4.9	1	6	46	1	0.22
3	@Miami	L0-62	21.6	5	13	2.6	0	4	41	0	0.26
4	@Central Michigan	L34-37	-15.8	19	94	4.9	1	3	18	0	0.36
5	@James Madison	L7-63	7.5	14	72	5.1	0	1	6	0	0.44
6	vsWestern Michigan	L42-45	-10.2	18	65	3.6	0	3	90	0	0.52
7	@Kent State	W37-35	-33.0	22	76	3.5	2	2	21	0	0.32
8	@Vanderbilt	L14-24	4.9	7	28	4.0	0	4	48	0	0.39
9	vsNorthern Illinois	W25-23	-3.5	17	51	3.0	0	4	47	0	-0.04
11	vsMiami (OH)	L21-27	1.3	3	16	5.3	0	1	8	0	0.57
12	@Buffalo	L48-51	-4.0	7	21	3.0	0	—	—	—	-0.28
13	vsBowling Green	L13-38	-1.8	7	27	3.9	0	1	4	0	-0.14
14	@Ohio	L21-42	2.3	10	31	3.1	0	—	—	—	0.11

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.5%

Passing plays

7.8%

Rushing plays

43.3%

Standard downs

26.6%

Passing downs

14.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.28
Passing downs: 0.26
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.78 / 0.15

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).