#9Tanner Koziol

TE·Ball State·2024

Tanner Koziol is a Versatile TE for Ball State. Tanner's 2024 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 94 plays — a elite rate for the TE.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Tanner Koziol's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2024 Production

Receiving

94 Receptions839 Rec yards8 Rec TD8.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2024 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume36
Explosiveness13
Consistency78
Pass-Down85

Player type

Versatile TE

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency78th %ile · above avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸10 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.09 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.49 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Northern Illinois (SP+ -4).

NIL Market Tier· 2024

On3 valuation ↗

Elite

Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Ty Thompson	Tulane	2024	48	0.420	0.7	20.2
Seth Green	Minnesota	2018	83	0.390	0.0	32.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	vsMissouri State	W42-34	—	6	60	10.0	1	33	0.44
3	@Miami	L0-62	21.6	5	39	7.8	0	18	0.48
4	@Central Michigan	L34-37	-15.8	9	112	12.4	1	22	1.28
5	@James Madison	L7-63	7.5	9	78	8.7	1	26	0.91
6	vsWestern Michigan	L42-45	-10.2	9	102	11.3	0	17	0.90
7	@Kent State	W37-35	-33.0	8	43	5.4	0	18	-0.15
8	@Vanderbilt	L14-24	4.9	9	68	7.6	1	14	0.80
9	vsNorthern Illinois	W25-23	-3.5	9	78	8.7	2	18	1.49
11	vsMiami (OH)	L21-27	1.3	4	49	12.3	0	23	0.59
12	@Buffalo	L48-51	-4.0	11	95	8.6	1	20	0.81
13	vsBowling Green	L13-38	-1.8	5	27	5.4	0	9	-0.36
14	@Ohio	L21-42	2.3	10	88	8.8	1	17	1.08

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

12.6%

Passing plays

21.6%

Rushing plays

0.3%

Standard downs

12.5%

Passing downs

12.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.71
Passing downs: 0.93
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.79 / 0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).