Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USMTeam statsARST
- Q4 3:15ARSTJaylen Bonelli 3 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)27–21
- Q4 9:15USMKyirin Heath 15 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)27–14
- Q4 13:08ARSTTyler Little 6 Yd pass from Josh Flowers (Clune Van Andel Kick)20–14
- Q3 2:05USMCreighton Wilbanks 37 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 14:04USMElijah Metcalf 76 Yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:43USMLandry Lyddy 7 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)10–7
- Q1 11:02ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:17USMCreighton Wilbanks 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassBraylon Braxton 20/29, 228 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJeffery Pittman 18 CAR, 75 YDS
- RecElijah Metcalf 5 REC, 143 YDS, 1 TD
- PassJaylen Raynor 37/48, 331 YDS, 2 TD, 4 INT
- RushDevin Spencer 11 CAR, 47 YDS
- RecCorey Rucker 7 REC, 123 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUSM up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 13:08ARST +21%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Flowers pass complete short middle to #87 T.Little caught at USM01, for 6 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 14:04USM +21%
Elijah Metcalf 76 Yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
- Q1 3:43USM +19%
Landry Lyddy 7 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)
- Q1 11:02ARST +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 J.Raynor pass complete short left to #5 K.Clay caught at USM02, for 5 yards to the USM00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 9:49USM +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 J.Pittman rush middle for 6 yards gain to the ASU00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty PENALTY USM Holding (#56 G.Nunnery) 10 yards from ASU06 to ASU1…
- Q3 2:05USM +13%
#40 C.Wilbanks field goal attempt from 37 yards GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State?
Southern Miss 27, Arkansas State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| USM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| 528 | Total yards | 456 |
| 356 | Passing yards | 337 |
| 172 | Rushing yards | 119 |
| 22 | First downs | 28 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 9-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 24/35 | Comp/Att | 38/53 |
| 10.2 | Yards per pass | 6.4 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 6 |
| 12-100 | Penalties | 2-10 |
| 29:45 | Possession | 30:15 |
Costliest call
Q3 8:50 USM punt on 4th & 3 at ARST 38. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.20 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 3:15ARSTJaylen Bonelli 3 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)27–21
- Q4 9:15USMKyirin Heath 15 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)27–14
- Q4 13:08ARSTTyler Little 6 Yd pass from Josh Flowers (Clune Van Andel Kick)20–14
- Q3 2:05USMCreighton Wilbanks 37 Yd Field Goal 20–7
- Q2 14:04USMElijah Metcalf 76 Yd pass from Landry Lyddy (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)17–7
- Q1 3:43USMLandry Lyddy 7 Yd Run (Creighton Wilbanks Kick)10–7
- Q1 11:02ARSTKenyon Clay 5 Yd pass from Jaylen Raynor (Clune Van Andel Kick)3–7
- Q1 13:17USMCreighton Wilbanks 28 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARST Elo 1314, USM Elo 1354 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARST -0.8 (53% to win) — 7.3 points clear of ARST's market line of +6.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesSouthern Miss leads 9–3 · 58% have been one-possession games
| USM | ARST | |
|---|---|---|
| -6.7 (#86) | CORE overall | -16.8 (#118) |
| -6 / +1 | offense / defense | -11 / +6 |
| 2.09 | points / drive | 1.85 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.35 |
| 25% | three-and-outs | 26% |
| +1 | pass over expected | +6 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →