Centennial Bank StadiumConference gameClosing line: USM +-6.5 · ARST covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USM | 10 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 27 |
| ARST | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
Team stats
USMthis game · better side highlightedARST
528
Total yards
456356
Passing yards
337172
Rushing yards
11922
First downs
287-17 · 41%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ARST 1314
USM 1354
Projected spread
ARST -0.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
ARST
52% to win
Market spread
ARST +6.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
ARST
7.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
ARST · market 33%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ARST Elo 1314, USM Elo 1354) plus home-field advantage. That projects ARST -0.8 (52% to win) — 7.3 points of value on ARST versus the market line of +6.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ARST (top)USM (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ARST 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- ARST rush offense (-0.01 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge USM.
- ARST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge ARST.
- USM pass offense (0.28 PPA) vs. ARST pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ARST.
Drive-by-drive
USM 5/14 scoring drives← own end zone →ARST 3/15 scoring drives
ARSTFUM1 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
USMFG5 pl, 15 yds· opp 25Q1
ARSTTD6 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
USM up 13 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,180 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
USM went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Southern Miss vs. Arkansas State?
Southern Miss 27, Arkansas State 21.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked ARST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had ARST pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.