#7Corey Rucker

WR·Arkansas State·2025

Corey Rucker is a Slot Specialist WR for Arkansas State. Corey's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 136 plays — a elite rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Corey Rucker's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

73 Receptions1029 Rec yards4 Rec TD14.1 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume40
Explosiveness47
Consistency71
Pass-Down33

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency71th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Strong second-half surge — EPA/play improved 0.27 from the first to second half of the season.
▸Peak game: 1.05 EPA/play in Wk 10 vs Troy (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Shai Werts	Georgia Southern	2020	128	0.310	1.0	39.7
Zach Abey	Navy	2016	70	0.370	0.8	25.9
Chris Tyree	Notre Dame	2020	76	0.310	0.6	23.6
Jafar Armstrong	Notre Dame	2018	79	0.320	1.0	25.3
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2024	66	0.340	0.7	22.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	vsSoutheast Missouri State	W42-24	—	2	59	29.5	1	50	0.76
2	vsArkansas	L14-56	5.1	3	20	6.7	0	10	-0.28
3	vsIowa State	L16-24	9.9	1	26	26.0	0	26	-0.06
4	@Kennesaw State	L21-28	-5.4	2	4	2.0	0	4	0.11
5	@UL Monroe	L16-28	-21.6	9	120	13.3	0	30	0.43
6	vsTexas State	W31-30	2.3	8	102	12.8	0	27	0.37
8	@South Alabama	W15-14	-12.7	8	58	7.3	0	9	0.51
9	vsGeorgia Southern	W34-24	-9.4	5	77	15.4	0	31	0.41
10	@Troy	W23-10	-4.8	4	64	16.0	0	27	1.05
11	vsSouthern Miss	L21-27	-7.1	7	123	17.6	0	55	0.56
13	vsLouisiana	L30-34	-10.1	8	120	15.0	0	28	0.28
14	@App State	W30-29	-11.4	10	90	9.0	2	34	0.14
20	vsMissouri State	W34-28	-10.7	6	166	27.7	1	71	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

14.1%

Passing plays

24.7%

Rushing plays

0.9%

Standard downs

11.6%

Passing downs

19.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.46
Passing downs: 0.35
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.43 / -0.12

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).