| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | OT | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USA | 7 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 24 |
| TROY | 7 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TROY Elo 1438, USA Elo 1430) plus home-field advantage. That projects TROY -2.7 (58% to win) — 5.2 points of value on TROY versus the market line of +2.5.
TROY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
South Alabama 24, Troy 31.
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TROY pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Bishop Davenport run for 56 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
B.Davenport steps back to pass. Pass incomplete intended for J.Henderson.
Tucker Kilcrease pass complete to DJ Epps for 22 yds to the USA 40 for a 1ST down
Team boards, recruiting & CFB talk — start a thread.
Open the boards →
