South Alabama vs. Troy: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
USATeam statsTROY
- OT 0:00TROYTae Meadows 3 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)24–31
- Q4 1:54USAKentrel Bullock 15 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)24–24
- Q4 6:47TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 28 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 3:50TROYDJ Epps 11 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–21
- Q3 7:02USABishop Davenport 56 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)17–14
- Q3 12:07USAHamilton DiBoyan 40 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:32TROYRara Thomas 25 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:05USAMicah Woods 33 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:12TROYTucker Kilcrease 34 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassBishop Davenport 10/15, 104 YDS, 2 TD
- RushKentrel Bullock 21 CAR, 86 YDS
- RecDevin Voisin 5 REC, 44 YDS
- PassTucker Kilcrease 13/21, 203 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushTucker Kilcrease 19 CAR, 102 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTray Taylor 2 REC, 74 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTROY up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 1:54USA +67%
Bishop Davenport pass complete to Kentrel Bullock for 15 yds for a TD (Hamilton DiBoyan KICK)
- Q4 0:18USA +67%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 53 yds, Peyton Higgins returns for 20 yds to the USA 48
- Q4 1:17TROY +45%
Evan Crenshaw punt for 43 yds
- Q1 12:00TROY +43%
Aleksi Pulkkinen punt for 52 yds, Peyton Higgins returns for 5 yds to the TROY 18
- Q4 0:12TROY +43%
Tucker Kilcrease pass incomplete to Tray Taylor
- OT 0:00USA +42%
T.Kilcrease rushed for 5 yards. Tackled by B.Myrick at USA 20
FAQ
What was the final score of South Alabama vs. Troy?
South Alabama 24, Troy 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TROY) was correct.
| USA | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| 369 | Total yards | 420 |
| 104 | Passing yards | 203 |
| 265 | Rushing yards | 217 |
| 18 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-17 | 3rd down | 5-15 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 3-4 |
| 10/15 | Comp/Att | 13/21 |
| 6.9 | Yards per pass | 9.7 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 7-45 | Penalties | 3-15 |
| 30:11 | Possession | 29:49 |
Costliest call
Q3 10:03 TROY punt on 4th & 1 at TROY 27. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.93 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- OT 0:00TROYTae Meadows 3 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)24–31
- Q4 1:54USAKentrel Bullock 15 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)24–24
- Q4 6:47TROYScott Taylor Renfroe 28 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 3:50TROYDJ Epps 11 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)17–21
- Q3 7:02USABishop Davenport 56 Yd Run (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)17–14
- Q3 12:07USAHamilton DiBoyan 40 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q2 1:32TROYRara Thomas 25 Yd pass from Tucker Kilcrease (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)7–14
- Q1 3:05USAMicah Woods 33 Yd pass from Bishop Davenport (Hamilton DiBoyan Kick)7–7
- Q1 7:12TROYTucker Kilcrease 34 Yd Run (Scott Taylor Renfroe Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TROY Elo 1438, USA Elo 1430 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TROY -2.7 (58% to win) — 5.2 points clear of TROY's market line of +2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesTroy leads 10–4 · 43% have been one-possession games
| USA | TROY | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.2 (#104) | CORE overall | -16.6 (#116) |
| -4 / +11 | offense / defense | -13 / +4 |
| 2.35 | points / drive | 1.77 |
| 2.86 | allowed / drive | 1.83 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -11 | pass over expected | +0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →