| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RICE | 3 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| UTSA | 21 | 17 | 23 | 0 | 61 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTSA Elo 1471, RICE Elo 1273) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTSA -10.3 (78% to win), essentially in line with the market.
UTSA up 51 entering the 4th quarter. Across 76 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Rice 13, UTSA 61.
Yes — the model's pick (UTSA) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had UTSA pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Shad Banks Jr. 41 Yd Fumble Return (Michael Petro Kick)
Patrick Crayton Jr. pass intercepted Kendrick Blackshire return for 17 yds for a TD (Michael Petro KICK)
Daelen Alexander run for 57 yds to the UTSA 3 for a 1ST down
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