| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PUR | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| NU | 3 | 10 | 6 | 0 | 19 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NU Elo 1510, PUR Elo 1314) plus home-field advantage. That projects NU -10.2 (78% to win) — 6.7 points of value on NU versus the market line of -3.5.
NU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Purdue 0, Northwestern 19.
Yes — the model's pick (NU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had NU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Dashun Reeder run for 9 yds to the PUR 28 Dashun Reeder fumbled, recovered by PUR Alex Sanford Jr.
Malachi Singleton pass complete to Corey Smith for 48 yds Corey Smith fumbled, recovered by NU Robert Fitzgerald
Preston Stone pass intercepted Smiley Bradford return for no gain to the PUR 14
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