Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
PITTTeam statsGT
- Q4 2:41PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 56 Yd Run (Sam Carpenter Kick)42–28
- Q4 4:51GTIsiah Canion 5 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)35–28
- Q4 8:46GTJamal Haynes 4 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)35–21
- Q3 5:55PITTBraylan Lovelace 100 Yd Interception Return (Sam Carpenter Kick)35–14
- Q2 1:08GTIsiah Canion 5 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)28–14
- Q2 4:45GTHaynes King 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)28–7
- Q2 11:47PITTMason Heintschel 3 Yd Run (Sam Carpenter Kick)28–0
- Q1 0:39PITTJuelz Goff 1 Yd Run (Sam Carpenter Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:13PITTJustin Holmes 19 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Sam Carpenter Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:49PITTKenny Johnson 31 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Sam Carpenter Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- PITT played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and GT did not face the same ones. 3rd & 9.2 vs 3rd & 6.8
- PassMason Heintschel 20/27, 226 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJa'Kyrian Turner 21 CAR, 201 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenny Johnson 6 REC, 91 YDS, 1 TD
- PassHaynes King 27/41, 257 YDS, 2 TD, 2 INT
- RushHaynes King 20 CAR, 76 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMalik Rutherford 6 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsPITT up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 7:49PITT +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete deep left to #2 K.Johnson caught at GT01, for 31 yards to the GT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY GT Holding declined
- Q1 3:13PITT +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short middle to #88 J.Holmes caught at GT03, for 19 yards to the GT00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 0:39PITT +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 J.Goff rush middle for 1 yard gain to the GT00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:08GT +8%
Shotgun #10 H.King pass complete short middle to #4 I.Canion caught at Pitt00, for 5 yards to the Pitt00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q4 6:40GT +8%
Shotgun #10 H.King pass complete deep middle to #4 I.Canion caught at Pitt14, for 24 yards to the Pitt14 (#7 J.McIntyre), 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:40PITT +8%
Shotgun #6 M.Heintschel pass complete short right to #3 C.Hicks caught at Pitt31, for 6 yards to the Pitt31 (#3 A.Harvey)
FAQ
What was the final score of Pittsburgh vs. Georgia Tech?
Pittsburgh 42, Georgia Tech 28.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| PITT | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| 412 | Total yards | 378 |
| 226 | Passing yards | 257 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 121 |
| 22 | First downs | 21 |
| 5-13 | 3rd down | 3-14 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 1-4 |
| 20/27 | Comp/Att | 27/41 |
| 8.4 | Yards per pass | 6.3 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 3.7 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 8-80 | Penalties | 9-71 |
| 29:35 | Possession | 30:25 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:01 PITT go for it on 4th & 9 at PITT 41. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:41PITTJa'Kyrian Turner 56 Yd Run (Sam Carpenter Kick)42–28
- Q4 4:51GTIsiah Canion 5 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)35–28
- Q4 8:46GTJamal Haynes 4 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)35–21
- Q3 5:55PITTBraylan Lovelace 100 Yd Interception Return (Sam Carpenter Kick)35–14
- Q2 1:08GTIsiah Canion 5 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)28–14
- Q2 4:45GTHaynes King 5 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)28–7
- Q2 11:47PITTMason Heintschel 3 Yd Run (Sam Carpenter Kick)28–0
- Q1 0:39PITTJuelz Goff 1 Yd Run (Sam Carpenter Kick)21–0
- Q1 3:13PITTJustin Holmes 19 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Sam Carpenter Kick)14–0
- Q1 7:49PITTKenny Johnson 31 Yd pass from Mason Heintschel (Sam Carpenter Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (GT Elo 1599, PITT Elo 1665 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects GT +0.2 (51% to win) — 2.7 points clear of PITT's market line of -2.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#69 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #101 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #21 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Pittsburgh leads 12–6 · 39% have been one-possession games
| PITT | GT | |
|---|---|---|
| +16.8 (#23) | CORE overall | +10.6 (#38) |
| +4 / -13 | offense / defense | +13 / +3 |
| 2.32 | points / drive | 2.86 |
| 1.96 | allowed / drive | 2.39 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →