Bobby Dodd StadiumConference gameClosing line: GT -2.5 · PITT covered
Sun, Nov 23, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PITT | 21 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 42 |
| GT | 0 | 14 | 0 | 14 | 28 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (GT Elo 1599, PITT Elo 1665) plus home-field advantage. That projects GT +0.2 (49% to win) — 2.7 points of value on PITT versus the market line of -2.5.
PITT up 21 entering the 4th quarter. Across 671 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Pittsburgh 42, Georgia Tech 28.
Yes — the model's pick (PITT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had PITT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(06:09) Shotgun #10 H.King pass intercepted by #0 B.Lovelace at Pitt00 #0 B.Lovelace return 100 yards to the GT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:55 #94 S.Carpenter kick attempt good (H: #91 C.Junko, LS: #48 N.Crawford)
(02:49) No Huddle-Shotgun #25 J.Turner rush middle for 56 yards gain to the GT00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 02:41, 1ST DOWN #94 S.Carpenter kick attempt good (H: #91 C.Junko, LS: #48 N.Crawford)
End of 2nd quarter.
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