Wed, Dec 17, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 7 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 24 |
| USF | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1817, ODU Elo 1627) on a neutral field. That projects USF -7.6 (71% to win) — 4.1 points of value on USF versus the market line of -3.5.
ODU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Old Dominion 24, South Florida 10.
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had USF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(14:59) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.Moore pass complete short right to #81 C.Neptune caught at USF22, for 43 yards to the ODU33 (#3 M.Easterly), 1ST DOWN
Quinn Henicle 51 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)
(04:36) No Huddle-Shotgun #10 Q.Henicle pass complete short right to #7 N.Abdul-Rahim Gladding caught at ODU34, for 28 yards to the USF41 (#25 Z.Hamilton), 1ST DOWN
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