Camping World StadiumNeutral site
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ODU | 7 | 0 | 10 | 7 | 24 |
| USF | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
USF 1817
ODU 1627
Projected spread
USF -7.6
neutral site
Model pick
USF
71% to win
Market spread
USF -3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
USF
4.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
USF · market 65%
Our model blends Elo ratings (USF Elo 1817, ODU Elo 1627) on a neutral field. That projects USF -7.6 (71% to win) — 4.1 points of value on USF versus the market line of -3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
USF (top)ODU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: USF 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- USF pass offense (0.48 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge USF.
- ODU pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. USF pass defense (0.17 allowed) — edge ODU.
- USF rush offense (0.18 PPA) vs. ODU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge USF.
Drive-by-drive
ODU 4/15 scoring drives← own end zone →USF 2/14 scoring drives
USFPUNT3 pl, 0 yds· own 27Q1
ODUDOWNS4 pl, 6 yds· opp 32Q1
USFPUNT3 pl, -9 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ODU up 7 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,299 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
81%
ODU went on to win
A solid but not safe lead
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. South Florida?
Old Dominion 24, South Florida 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had USF pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.