Old Dominion vs. South Florida: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ODUTeam statsUSF
- Q4 2:24ODUQuinn Henicle 51 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)24–10
- Q3 3:27ODUNathanial Eichner 24 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 10:06ODUTrequan Jones 22 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:24USFJeremiah Koger 31 Yd pass from Gaston Moore (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:42ODUQuinn Henicle 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:18USFNico Gramatica 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
How the model called it
- PassQuinn Henicle 11/25, 127 YDS
- RushQuinn Henicle 24 CAR, 107 YDS, 2 TD
- RecNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 5 REC, 60 YDS
- PassGaston Moore 20/28, 236 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushAlvon Isaac 7 CAR, 41 YDS
- RecChristian Neptune 9 REC, 102 YDS
FAQ
What was the final score of Old Dominion vs. South Florida?
Old Dominion 24, South Florida 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked USF, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ODU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| 382 | Total yards | 333 |
| 127 | Passing yards | 281 |
| 255 | Rushing yards | 52 |
| 21 | First downs | 19 |
| 9-20 | 3rd down | 5-16 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 11/26 | Comp/Att | 26/40 |
| 4.9 | Yards per pass | 7.0 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 1.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 5 |
| 6-70 | Penalties | 7-65 |
| 31:07 | Possession | 28:53 |
- Q4 2:24ODUQuinn Henicle 51 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)24–10
- Q3 3:27ODUNathanial Eichner 24 Yd Field Goal 17–10
- Q3 10:06ODUTrequan Jones 22 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)14–10
- Q2 7:24USFJeremiah Koger 31 Yd pass from Gaston Moore (Nico Gramatica Kick)7–10
- Q1 0:42ODUQuinn Henicle 6 Yd Run (Nathanial Eichner Kick)7–3
- Q1 5:18USFNico Gramatica 28 Yd Field Goal 0–3
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USF Elo 1817, ODU Elo 1627 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects USF -7.6 (70% to win) — 4.1 points clear of USF's market line of -3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| ODU | USF | |
|---|---|---|
| +18.9 (#17) | CORE overall | +16.2 (#25) |
| +5 / -14 | offense / defense | +11 / -5 |
| 2.46 | points / drive | 3.02 |
| 1.52 | allowed / drive | 1.88 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -3 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →