Notre Dame vs. Arkansas: Final Score, Recap & Advanced Stats

Notre Dame1-2

▸

Arkansas2-2

Final

Razorback Stadium

	1	2	3	4	T
ND	14	28	7	7	56
ARK	3	10	0	0	13

NDTeam statsARK

641Total yards365

431Pass207

210Rush158

32First downs15

6-103rd down7-15

0Turnovers2

32:47Possession27:13

Q4 8:54NDAneyas Williams 17 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)56–13
Q3 1:01NDJadarian Price 16 Yd Run (Erik Schmidt Kick)49–13
Q2 0:09NDJadarian Price 35 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)42–13
Q2 0:35NDJeremiyah Love 3 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)35–13
Q2 3:48ARKScott Starzyk 49 Yd Field Goal 28–13
Q2 6:04NDJeremiyah Love 34 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)28–10
Q2 8:26NDWill Pauling 23 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)21–10
Q2 11:19ARKJacQawn McRoy 1 Yd Run (Scott Starzyk Kick)14–10
Q1 4:14NDJeremiyah Love 7 Yd pass from CJ Carr (Noah Burnette Kick)14–3
Q1 8:16NDJeremiyah Love 1 Yd Run (Noah Burnette Kick)7–3
Q1 12:55ARKScott Starzyk 39 Yd Field Goal 0–3

How the model called it

Model line

ND −15.6

market ND −5.5

Against the number

ND covered

line ND −5.5

ARK favored ↑50%ND favored ↓

GridpexND 100%

Closing line

ND −5.5

Closing total

63.5

Model line

ND −15.6

Actual result

ND 56 – 13 ARK

Notre Dame

PassCJ Carr 22/30, 354 YDS, 4 TD
RushJadarian Price 13 CAR, 86 YDS, 1 TD
RecJordan Faison 7 REC, 89 YDS

Arkansas

PassTaylen Green 17/32, 207 YDS, 1 INT
RushTaylen Green 10 CAR, 81 YDS
RecO'Mega Blake 6 REC, 73 YDS

This exact spot, historically

empirical, no ratings

ND up 36 entering the 4th quarter. Across 339 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):

100%

ND went on to win

A near-lock historically

Most comparable games

WMontana vs Utah Tech43-13 WTexas State vs Jackson State77-34 WLiberty vs Old Dominion39-10 WWeber State vs Northwestern State39-0 WLouisiana vs Arkansas State55-19

FAQ

What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Arkansas?

Notre Dame 56, Arkansas 13.

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Yes — the model's pick (ND) was correct.

ARK

56%

Success rate

44%

1.03

EPA / pass

-0.06

0.22

EPA / rush

0.34

54%

Early-down success

44%

67%

Pass success

41%

46%

Rush success

48%

27%

Explosive play rate (15+ yds)

14%

18%

Stuffed rush rate

31%

48%

Pass rate

56%

6.0

Avg 3rd-down distance

7.3

6.0 yards to go on 3rd down

75 scrimmage snaps

ARK

7.3 yards to go on 3rd down

66 scrimmage snaps

ND		ARK
641	Total yards	365
431	Passing yards	207
210	Rushing yards	158
32	First downs	15
6-10	3rd down	7-15
2-3	4th down	1-3
24/32	Comp/Att	17/32
13.5	Yards per pass	6.5
5.3	Yards per rush	5.3
0	Turnovers	2
5-42	Penalties	6-60
32:47	Possession	27:13

Model prediction

how the number is built

Power rating (Elo)

ARK 1677

ND 2126

Projected spread

ARK +15.6

incl. home edge

Model pick

84% to win

Market spread

ARK +5.5

sportsbook line

Model vs market

10.1 pts apart

Win prob: model / mkt

16%

ARK · market 35%

Our model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ARK Elo 1677, ND Elo 2126 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ARK +15.6 (16% to win) — 10.1 points clear of ND's market line of +5.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.

Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).

Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation

Season form — 2025

nationally ranked

ND2025 season · national rank shownARK

459.512th

Total yards / game

455.114th

7.52nd

Yards / play

7.07th

255.137th

Passing yards / game

262.930th

204.417th

Rushing yards / game

192.228th

48.1%13th

3rd down %

47.2%16th

313.122nd

Yards allowed / game

426.4123rd

35.4%39th

3rd down % allowed

44.4%119th

+137th

Turnover margin

-11127th

5.543rd

Penalties / game

7.8131st

The matchup, in context

series history + adjusted profiles

Opponent-adjusted profile2025

ND		ARK
+38.3 (#2)	CORE overall	+10.7 (#37)
+20 / -18	offense / defense	+20 / +9
3.84	points / drive	2.72
1.28	allowed / drive	3.48
17%	three-and-outs	21%
+0	pass over expected	-0

Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.

CORE ratings →Drive efficiency →Play-calling →

Pro

Key matchups

The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.

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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →

NDTeam statsARK

Scoring plays

How the model called it

Win probability

How the line closed

Leaders

This exact spot, historically

Fourth downs

FAQ

What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Arkansas?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Situational splits

Team stats

Fourth downs

Drive chart

Scoring plays

Model prediction

Season form — 2025

The matchup, in context

Key matchups

Notre Dame vs. Arkansas: Final Score & Recap

NDTeam statsARK

How the model called it

What was the final score of Notre Dame vs. Arkansas?

Did Gridpex's model pick hit?

Key matchups