New Mexico State vs. UTEP: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsUTEP
- Q4 0:21NMSUTK King 10 Yd pass from Adam Damante (David Barker Kick)34–31
- Q4 0:56UTEPKenny Odom 28 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)27–31
- Q4 10:20NMSUDavid Barker 24 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 0:06UTEPTanner Cragun 22 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 5:09NMSUDavid Barker 46 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 5:15NMSUDijon Stanley 57 Yd Run (David Barker Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:10NMSUDonovan Faupel 11 Yd pass from Adam Damante (David Barker Kick)14–21
- Q2 14:57NMSUDonovan Faupel 8 Yd pass from Adam Damante (David Barker Kick)7–21
- Q1 5:56UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 27 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:42UTEPAshten Emory 30 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:58UTEPSkyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- UTEP lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 14% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassAdam Damante 29/41, 253 YDS, 3 TD, 1 INT
- RushDijon Stanley 11 CAR, 106 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDonovan Faupel 9 REC, 78 YDS, 2 TD
- PassSkyler Locklear 16/30, 151 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushAshten Emory 18 CAR, 181 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKenny Odom 8 REC, 48 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:21NMSU +96%
No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass complete short middle to #12 T.King caught at UTEP00, for 10 yards to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 0:56UTEP +72%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep left to #6 K.Odom caught at NMSU00, for 28 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 14:53UTEP +49%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush middle for 6 yards gain to the NMSU31 (#3 S.Bowser)
- Q4 4:08UTEP +22%
No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete short right to #6 K.Odom caught at UTEP09, for 8 yards to the UTEP11 (#21 Z.Rodriguez-Brown)
- Q4 10:20NMSU +17%
#92 D.Barker field goal attempt from 24 yards GOOD
- Q4 8:37NMSU +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #1 K.Calloway rush middle for 7 yards gain to the NMSU30 (#18 J.Content)
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. UTEP?
New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTEP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| NMSU | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| 470 | Total yards | 399 |
| 276 | Passing yards | 151 |
| 194 | Rushing yards | 248 |
| 27 | First downs | 20 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 30/42 | Comp/Att | 16/30 |
| 6.6 | Yards per pass | 5.0 |
| 5.0 | Yards per rush | 7.3 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-51 | Penalties | 4-40 |
| 36:44 | Possession | 23:16 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:19 NMSU punt on 4th & 6 at UTEP 41. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:21NMSUTK King 10 Yd pass from Adam Damante (David Barker Kick)34–31
- Q4 0:56UTEPKenny Odom 28 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)27–31
- Q4 10:20NMSUDavid Barker 24 Yd Field Goal 27–24
- Q3 0:06UTEPTanner Cragun 22 Yd Field Goal 24–24
- Q3 5:09NMSUDavid Barker 46 Yd Field Goal 24–21
- Q2 5:15NMSUDijon Stanley 57 Yd Run (David Barker Kick)21–21
- Q2 7:10NMSUDonovan Faupel 11 Yd pass from Adam Damante (David Barker Kick)14–21
- Q2 14:57NMSUDonovan Faupel 8 Yd pass from Adam Damante (David Barker Kick)7–21
- Q1 5:56UTEPWondame Davis Jr. 27 Yd pass from Skyler Locklear (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–21
- Q1 9:42UTEPAshten Emory 30 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:58UTEPSkyler Locklear 1 Yd Run (Carlos Arreola Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTEP Elo 1215, NMSU Elo 1181 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTEP -3.8 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesUTEP leads 55–32–1 · 45% have been one-possession games
| NMSU | UTEP | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.5 (#120) | CORE overall | -26.7 (#131) |
| -12 / +6 | offense / defense | -26 / +1 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 1.32 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.36 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 32% |
| +9 | pass over expected | -0 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →