Sun BowlConference gameClosing line: UTEP -4 · NMSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 34 |
| UTEP | 21 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
Team stats
NMSUthis game · better side highlightedUTEP
470
Total yards
399276
Passing yards
151194
Rushing yards
24827
First downs
208-16 · 50%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
UTEP 1215
NMSU 1181
Projected spread
UTEP -3.8
incl. home edge
Model pick
UTEP
61% to win
Market spread
UTEP -4
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
61%
UTEP · market 62%
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTEP Elo 1215, NMSU Elo 1181) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTEP -3.8 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
UTEP (top)NMSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: UTEP 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- UTEP pass offense (0.03 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge NMSU.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. UTEP rush defense (0.02 allowed) — edge UTEP.
- NMSU pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. UTEP pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge UTEP.
Drive-by-drive
NMSU 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →UTEP 5/13 scoring drives
NMSUPUNT6 pl, 17 yds· own 25Q1
UTEPTD5 pl, 66 yds· own 34Q1
NMSUINT2 pl, 0 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
50%
UTEP win rate
How often the home team won from here
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. UTEP?
New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTEP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had UTEP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.