Sat, Nov 22, 8:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 21 | 3 | 10 | 34 |
| UTEP | 21 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 31 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UTEP Elo 1215, NMSU Elo 1181) plus home-field advantage. That projects UTEP -3.8 (61% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Tied entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,332 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico State 34, UTEP 31.
No — the model picked UTEP, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had UTEP pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(05:22) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 D.Stanley rush middle for 57 yards gain to the UTEP00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 05:15, 1ST DOWN #92 D.Barker kick attempt good (H: #32 M.Dean, LS: #42 G.Curtis)
(11:00) No Huddle-Shotgun #1 A.Emory rush middle for 56 yards gain to the NMSU02 (#23 S.McKelvey), 1ST DOWN, PENALTY NMSU Horse Collar Tackle (#23 S.McKelvey) 1 yard from NMSU02 to NMSU01, 1ST DOWN
(01:15) No Huddle-Shotgun #9 S.Locklear pass complete deep right to #17 J.Brown caught at NMSU28, for 34 yards to the NMSU28, End Of Play, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review - "Pass completion". CALL UPHELD
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