Neyland StadiumClosing line: TENN -41.5 · NMSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| TENN | 14 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 42 |
Team stats
NMSUthis game · better side highlightedTENN
340
Total yards
413313
Passing yards
21927
Rushing yards
19424
First downs
228-19 · 42%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
TENN 1814
NMSU 1201
Projected spread
TENN -26.9
incl. home edge
Model pick
TENN
98% to win
Market spread
TENN -41.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
NMSU
14.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
98%
TENN (no market)
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1814, NMSU Elo 1201) plus home-field advantage. That projects TENN -26.9 (98% to win) — 14.6 points of value on NMSU versus the market line of -41.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
TENN (top)NMSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: TENN 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- TENN rush offense (0.26 PPA) vs. NMSU rush defense (0.00 allowed) — edge TENN.
- NMSU rush offense (-0.09 PPA) vs. TENN rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge TENN.
- TENN pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. NMSU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge TENN.
Drive-by-drive
NMSU 3/13 scoring drives← own end zone →TENN 5/13 scoring drives
NMSUPUNT7 pl, 33 yds· own 25Q1
TENNINT5 pl, 27 yds· own 20Q1
NMSUDOWNS4 pl, 9 yds· midfieldQ1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
TENN up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
TENN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Tennessee?
New Mexico State 9, Tennessee 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had TENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.