Sat, Nov 15, 9:15 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NMSU | 0 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| TENN | 14 | 7 | 21 | 0 | 42 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (TENN Elo 1814, NMSU Elo 1201) plus home-field advantage. That projects TENN -26.9 (98% to win) — 14.6 points of value on NMSU versus the market line of -41.5.
TENN up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
New Mexico State 9, Tennessee 42.
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had TENN pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(01:33) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass intercepted by #0 W.Wright at NMSU35 broken up by #42 T.West #0 W.Wright return 35 yards to the NMSU00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 01:24 #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady) #90 M.Gilbert kick attempt good (H: #98 J.Ross, LS: #48 B.Brady). #73 B.Grant injured on the play
(12:07) No Huddle-Shotgun #14 A.Damante pass incomplete short right to #12 T.King thrown to TENN00, TURNOVER ON DOWNS
(01:24) No Huddle-Shotgun #37 I.Rudison rush middle for 0 yards to the TENN29 (#50 R.Scott), TURNOVER ON DOWNS
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