New Mexico State vs. Tennessee: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
NMSUTeam statsTENN
- Q4 7:47NMSUIsaiah Rudison 1 Yd Run (David Barker PAT failed)9–42
- Q3 1:24TENNWilliam Wright 35 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)3–42
- Q3 2:35TENNPeyton Lewis 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)3–35
- Q3 10:46TENNStar Thomas 21 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)3–28
- Q2 1:25NMSUDavid Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 11:24TENNBraylon Staley 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:43TENNJoey Aguilar 27 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:54TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLogan Fife 23/34, 166 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDijon Stanley 7 CAR, 19 YDS
- RecDonovan Faupel 9 REC, 80 YDS
- PassJoey Aguilar 17/23, 204 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushDeSean Bishop 16 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Brazzell II 3 REC, 65 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsTENN up 39 entering the 4th quarter. Across 218 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of New Mexico State vs. Tennessee?
New Mexico State 9, Tennessee 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (TENN) was correct.
| NMSU | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total yards | 413 |
| 313 | Passing yards | 219 |
| 27 | Rushing yards | 194 |
| 24 | First downs | 22 |
| 8-19 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 1-5 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 35/53 | Comp/Att | 19/27 |
| 5.9 | Yards per pass | 8.1 |
| 0.9 | Yards per rush | 5.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3-29 | Penalties | 4-55 |
| 35:39 | Possession | 24:21 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:04 NMSU punt on 4th & 1 at NMSU 39. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 1.07 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 7:47NMSUIsaiah Rudison 1 Yd Run (David Barker PAT failed)9–42
- Q3 1:24TENNWilliam Wright 35 Yd Interception Return (Max Gilbert Kick)3–42
- Q3 2:35TENNPeyton Lewis 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)3–35
- Q3 10:46TENNStar Thomas 21 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)3–28
- Q2 1:25NMSUDavid Barker 32 Yd Field Goal 3–21
- Q2 11:24TENNBraylon Staley 15 Yd pass from Joey Aguilar (Max Gilbert Kick)0–21
- Q1 5:43TENNJoey Aguilar 27 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–14
- Q1 7:54TENNDeSean Bishop 1 Yd Run (Max Gilbert Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TENN Elo 1814, NMSU Elo 1201 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TENN -26.9 (95% to win) — 14.6 points clear of NMSU's market line of -41.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| NMSU | TENN | |
|---|---|---|
| -17.5 (#120) | CORE overall | +15.0 (#26) |
| -12 / +6 | offense / defense | +16 / +1 |
| 1.66 | points / drive | 3.27 |
| 2.21 | allowed / drive | 2.38 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 17% |
| +9 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →