Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
MSSTTeam statsUSM
- Q4 0:33USMTJ Johnson 7 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)34–17
- Q3 1:52MSSTDavon Booth 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)34–10
- Q3 4:57MSSTFluff Bothwell 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)27–10
- Q3 9:34MSSTFluff Bothwell 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:03MSSTKyle Ferrie 30 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 9:32USMMicah Davis 3 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)10–10
- Q1 3:35MSSTKyle Ferrie 55 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 7:54USMReed Harradine 43 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q1 13:35MSSTSeydou Traore 57 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBlake Shapen 26/33, 272 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushDavon Booth 16 CAR, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- RecBrenen Thompson 7 REC, 92 YDS
- PassBraylon Braxton 26/39, 199 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushBraylon Braxton 12 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecCarl Chester 6 REC, 53 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsMSST up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 9:32USM +17%
Micah Davis 3 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)
- Q3 9:34MSST +15%
Fluff Bothwell 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)
- Q1 13:35MSST +13%
Blake Shapen pass complete to Seydou Traore for 55 yds for a TD (Kyle Ferrie KICK)
- Q2 0:03MSST +9%
Kyle Ferrie 30 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 7:54USM +6%
Reed Harradine 43 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 3:35MSST +5%
Kyle Ferrie 55 Yd Field Goal
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss?
Mississippi State 34, Southern Miss 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MSST) was correct.
| MSST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| 465 | Total yards | 301 |
| 279 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 186 | Rushing yards | 102 |
| 24 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-14 | 3rd down | 10-19 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 27/36 | Comp/Att | 26/39 |
| 7.8 | Yards per pass | 5.1 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 2.9 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 14-119 | Penalties | 8-60 |
| 30:21 | Possession | 29:39 |
Costliest call
Q3 0:28 USM punt on 4th & 1 at USM 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:33USMTJ Johnson 7 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)34–17
- Q3 1:52MSSTDavon Booth 3 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)34–10
- Q3 4:57MSSTFluff Bothwell 1 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)27–10
- Q3 9:34MSSTFluff Bothwell 6 Yd Run (Kyle Ferrie Kick)20–10
- Q2 0:03MSSTKyle Ferrie 30 Yd Field Goal 13–10
- Q2 9:32USMMicah Davis 3 Yd pass from Braylon Braxton (Reed Harradine Kick)10–10
- Q1 3:35MSSTKyle Ferrie 55 Yd Field Goal 10–3
- Q1 7:54USMReed Harradine 43 Yd Field Goal7–3
- Q1 13:35MSSTSeydou Traore 57 Yd pass from Blake Shapen (Kyle Ferrie Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (USM Elo 1119, MSST Elo 1412 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects USM +9.3 (28% to win) — 4.7 points clear of USM's market line of +14. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesMississippi State leads 19–12–1 · Mississippi State has won 7 straight · 47% have been one-possession games
| MSST | USM | |
|---|---|---|
| +0.1 (#64) | CORE overall | -6.7 (#86) |
| -1 / -1 | offense / defense | -6 / +1 |
| 2.07 | points / drive | 2.09 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 27% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| -4 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →