| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MSST | 10 | 3 | 21 | 0 | 34 |
| USM | 3 | 7 | 0 | 7 | 17 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Our model blends Elo ratings (USM Elo 1119, MSST Elo 1412) plus home-field advantage. That projects USM +9.3 (24% to win) — 4.7 points of value on USM versus the market line of +14.
Pregame Win Probability
Pick: MSST · 4 pts off the market line
Play-by-play win probability appears once the game kicks off.
Advanced Matchup — 2025
Offense
Key matchups · Pro
- MSST pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. USM pass defense (0.13 allowed) — edge MSST.
- USM rush offense (0.10 PPA) vs. MSST rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge MSST.
- MSST rush offense (0.11 PPA) vs. USM rush defense (0.14 allowed) — edge USM.
Drive-by-drive
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
MSST up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Mississippi State vs. Southern Miss?
Mississippi State 34, Southern Miss 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (MSST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had MSST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.