#6Davon Booth

RB·Mississippi State·2025

Davon Booth is a Committee Back for Mississippi State. Davon's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 147 plays — a developing rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Davon Booth's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

552 Rush yards7 Rush TD136 Carries4.1 Yards/carry

Receiving

15 Receptions165 Rec yards2 Rec TD11.0 Yards/rec

Returns

6 Kick returns89 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency0
Volume51
Explosiveness22
Consistency0
Receiving52

Player type

Committee Back

Part of a rotation — contributes in a complementary role and keeps the featured back fresh.

Rotational roleSituational use

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs RB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.25 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.56 EPA/play in Wk 4 vs Northern Illinois (SP+ -17).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2016	288	0.340	3.9	97.9

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@Southern Miss	W34-17	-7.1	16	79	4.9	1	1	12	0	0.40
2	vsArizona State	W24-20	3.9	9	33	3.7	0	1	9	0	0.09
3	vsAlcorn State	W63-0	—	2	14	7.0	0	—	—	—	-0.13
4	vsNorthern Illinois	W38-10	-16.7	7	22	3.1	2	1	8	0	0.56
5	vsTennessee	L34-41	15.0	17	58	3.4	1	—	—	—	-0.08
6	@Texas A&M	L9-31	20.7	8	59	7.4	0	2	7	0	0.36
8	@Florida	L21-23	3.5	22	105	4.8	2	2	14	0	0.36
9	vsTexas	L38-45	16.2	24	99	4.1	0	3	85	1	0.12
10	@Arkansas	W38-35	5.1	7	5	0.7	1	1	8	1	-0.13
11	vsGeorgia	L21-41	24.1	11	38	3.5	0	—	—	—	-0.17
12	@Missouri	L27-49	14.4	10	34	3.4	0	3	15	0	-0.05
14	vsOle Miss	L19-38	24.0	3	6	2.0	0	1	7	0	-0.44

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

17.7%

Passing plays

5.1%

Rushing plays

28.5%

Standard downs

21.3%

Passing downs

10.6%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.12
Passing downs: 0.16
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.69 / 0.04

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).