Sun, Nov 16, 1:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 26 |
| JXST | 7 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 35 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (JXST Elo 1512, KENN Elo 1381) plus home-field advantage. That projects JXST -7.6 (71% to win) — 11.1 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +3.5.
JXST up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Kennesaw State 26, Jacksonville State 35.
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Deondre Johnson 62 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Cade Cunningham Run for Two-Point Conversion)
(11:34) No Huddle-Shotgun #12 C.Creel pass complete deep middle to #11 D.Johnson caught at KSU15, for 50 yards to the KSU15 (#1 J.Washington Jr.), 1ST DOWN
(11:17) Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass intercepted by #31 M.Woods at Jax St00 QB hurried by #13 J.Cruz, Touchback
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