Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENNTeam statsJXST
- Q4 0:21JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 26–35
- Q4 3:22KENNDexter Williams II 9 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)26–32
- Q4 7:55KENNClayton Coppock 10 Yd pass from Dexter Williams II (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–32
- Q4 10:30JXSTCaden Creel 15 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)13–32
- Q3 2:49KENNDaniel Kinney 25 Yd Field Goal 13–25
- Q3 6:56JXSTGarrison Rippa 32 Yd Field Goal 10–25
- Q2 0:00JXSTDeondre Johnson 62 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Cade Cunningham Run for Two-Point Conversion)10–22
- Q2 2:42JXSTCam Cook 6 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–14
- Q2 4:33KENNDaniel Kinney 43 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:28JXSTCaden Creel 18 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:47KENNAmari Odom 1 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAmari Odom 19/31, 248 YDS, 3 INT
- RushChase Belcher 8 CAR, 62 YDS
- RecGabriel Benyard 5 REC, 100 YDS
- PassCaden Creel 8/13, 137 YDS
- RushCam Cook 27 CAR, 132 YDS, 1 TD
- RecDeondre Johnson 2 REC, 112 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsJXST up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:21JXST +10%
#37 G.Rippa field goal attempt from 27 yards GOOD
- Q4 3:22KENN +10%
Shotgun #5 D.Williams II rush middle for 9 yards gain to the Jax St00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 12:09KENN +5%
No Huddle-Shotgun #0 C.Bennett rush middle for 3 yards gain to the Jax St18 (#1 C.Nix; #43 T.Woods), 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State?
Kennesaw State 26, Jacksonville State 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| KENN | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 579 | Total yards | 451 |
| 362 | Passing yards | 199 |
| 217 | Rushing yards | 252 |
| 32 | First downs | 18 |
| 7-15 | 3rd down | 4-11 |
| 2-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 27/44 | Comp/Att | 9/14 |
| 8.2 | Yards per pass | 14.2 |
| 4.7 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 10-90 | Penalties | 8-92 |
| 34:22 | Possession | 25:38 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:55 KENN go for it on 4th & 10 at JXST 10. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.63 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:21JXSTGarrison Rippa 27 Yd Field Goal 26–35
- Q4 3:22KENNDexter Williams II 9 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)26–32
- Q4 7:55KENNClayton Coppock 10 Yd pass from Dexter Williams II (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)19–32
- Q4 10:30JXSTCaden Creel 15 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)13–32
- Q3 2:49KENNDaniel Kinney 25 Yd Field Goal 13–25
- Q3 6:56JXSTGarrison Rippa 32 Yd Field Goal 10–25
- Q2 0:00JXSTDeondre Johnson 62 Yd pass from Gavin Wimsatt (Cade Cunningham Run for Two-Point Conversion)10–22
- Q2 2:42JXSTCam Cook 6 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)10–14
- Q2 4:33KENNDaniel Kinney 43 Yd Field Goal 10–7
- Q1 5:28JXSTCaden Creel 18 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–7
- Q1 9:47KENNAmari Odom 1 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (JXST Elo 1512, KENN Elo 1381 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects JXST -7.6 (70% to win) — 11.1 points clear of JXST's market line of +3.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | JXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#76) | CORE overall | -10.7 (#99) |
| +2 / +6 | offense / defense | -4 / +7 |
| 2.14 | points / drive | 2.12 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.19 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 21% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -12 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →