AmFirst StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 7 | 3 | 3 | 13 | 26 |
| JXST | 7 | 15 | 3 | 10 | 35 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
JXST 1512
KENN 1381
Projected spread
JXST -7.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
JXST
71% to win
Market spread
JXST +3.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
11.1 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
71%
JXST · market 41%
Our model blends Elo ratings (JXST Elo 1512, KENN Elo 1381) plus home-field advantage. That projects JXST -7.6 (71% to win) — 11.1 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +3.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
JXST (top)KENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: JXST 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- KENN pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge KENN.
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge JXST.
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. KENN pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge KENN.
Drive-by-drive
KENN 5/11 scoring drives← own end zone →JXST 6/11 scoring drives
KENNTD14 pl, 65 yds· own 35Q1
JXSTTD9 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
KENNMISS13 pl, 78 yds· own 11Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
JXST up 12 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,519 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
91%
JXST went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State?
Kennesaw State 26, Jacksonville State 35.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.