#4Chase Belcher

RB·Kennesaw State·2025

Chase Belcher is a Explosive Back for Kennesaw State. Chase's 2025 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 107 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Chase Belcher's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

566 Rush yards2 Rush TD107 Carries5.3 Yards/carry

Receiving

13 Receptions194 Rec yards2 Rec TD14.9 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs RB peers

Efficiency88
Volume39
Explosiveness46
Consistency52
Receiving56

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency52th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (88th percentile).
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.16 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.84 EPA/play in Wk 5 vs Middle Tennessee (SP+ -16).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
2	@Indiana	L9-56	32.4	8	27	3.4	0	—	—	—	-0.25
4	vsArkansas State	W28-21	-8.8	3	14	4.7	0	—	—	—	0.26
5	vsMiddle Tennessee	W24-16	-16.0	2	9	4.5	0	1	53	1	1.84
7	vsLouisiana Tech	W35-7	-1.3	2	7	3.5	0	—	—	—	0.16
9	@Florida International	W45-26	-10.5	12	65	5.4	1	—	—	—	0.25
10	vsUTEP	W33-20	-17.5	24	113	4.7	1	1	11	0	0.18
11	@New Mexico State	W24-21	-15.5	13	81	6.2	0	1	11	0	0.53
12	@Jacksonville State	L26-35	-6.7	8	62	7.8	0	2	24	0	0.42
13	vsMissouri State	W41-34	-10.7	11	15	1.4	0	3	65	1	0.53
14	@Liberty	W48-42	-9.0	7	24	3.4	0	—	—	—	-0.17
15	@Jacksonville State	W19-15	-6.7	1	1	1.0	0	2	12	0	-0.07
20	vsWestern Michigan	L6-41	-1.4	16	148	9.3	0	3	18	0	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

13.7%

Passing plays

4.2%

Rushing plays

22.3%

Standard downs

15.0%

Passing downs

10.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.49
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.98 / 0.18

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).