Kennesaw State vs. Florida International: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
KENNTeam statsFIU
- Q4 0:15FIUEric Nelson 12 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)45–26
- Q4 1:03KENNChase Belcher 6 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)45–20
- Q4 2:59KENNDexter Williams II 2 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)38–20
- Q4 9:16FIUNoah Grant 28 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 0:19KENNChristian Moss 70 Yd pass from Dexter Williams II (Britton Williams Kick)31–17
- Q3 7:57FIUNoah Grant 43 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 1:49FIUKejon Owens 43 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)24–14
- Q2 5:04KENNBritton Williams 40 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 14:48KENNColeman Bennett 76 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:25FIUAnthony Carrie 15 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:44KENNAlexander Diggs 2 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:25KENNAmari Odom 2 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassAmari Odom 10/15, 205 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAlexander Diggs 11 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecGabriel Benyard 5 REC, 97 YDS
- PassKeyone Jenkins 22/36, 296 YDS, 1 TD
- RushKejon Owens 20 CAR, 166 YDS, 1 TD
- RecAlex Perry 7 REC, 75 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsKENN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:11KENN +22%
Kneel down by Kennesaw St. at KSU47 for loss of 4 yards
- Q1 8:25KENN +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #2 A.Odom rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 0:04FIU +18%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 C.Belcher rush left for 1 yard gain to the KSU05 (#13 D.Anderson; #11 P.Courtney Jr.)
- Q1 3:44KENN +17%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 A.Diggs rush middle for 2 yards gain to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 0:25FIU +16%
No Huddle #6 A.Carrie rush left for 15 yards gain to the KSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 14:48KENN +15%
Shotgun #2 A.Odom pass complete short right to #0 C.Bennett caught at KSU26, for 76 yards to the FIU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN. The previous play is under automatic review…
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Florida International?
Kennesaw State 45, Florida International 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| KENN | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| 498 | Total yards | 518 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 296 |
| 214 | Rushing yards | 222 |
| 20 | First downs | 23 |
| 3-9 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 0-2 |
| 12/17 | Comp/Att | 22/36 |
| 16.7 | Yards per pass | 8.2 |
| 5.2 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-56 | Penalties | 10-80 |
| 25:39 | Possession | 34:21 |
Costliest call
Q3 6:22 KENN punt on 4th & 1 at KENN 17. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.85 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:15FIUEric Nelson 12 Yd pass from Keyone Jenkins (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)45–26
- Q4 1:03KENNChase Belcher 6 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)45–20
- Q4 2:59KENNDexter Williams II 2 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)38–20
- Q4 9:16FIUNoah Grant 28 Yd Field Goal 31–20
- Q3 0:19KENNChristian Moss 70 Yd pass from Dexter Williams II (Britton Williams Kick)31–17
- Q3 7:57FIUNoah Grant 43 Yd Field Goal 24–17
- Q2 1:49FIUKejon Owens 43 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)24–14
- Q2 5:04KENNBritton Williams 40 Yd Field Goal 24–7
- Q2 14:48KENNColeman Bennett 76 Yd pass from Amari Odom (Britton Williams Kick)21–7
- Q1 0:25FIUAnthony Carrie 15 Yd Run (Noah Grant Kick)14–7
- Q1 3:44KENNAlexander Diggs 2 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)14–0
- Q1 8:25KENNAmari Odom 2 Yd Run (Britton Williams Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (FIU Elo 1288, KENN Elo 1332 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects FIU -0.6 (53% to win) — 3.6 points clear of FIU's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| KENN | FIU | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.9 (#76) | CORE overall | -15.2 (#109) |
| +2 / +6 | offense / defense | -11 / +4 |
| 2.14 | points / drive | 2.11 |
| 2.02 | allowed / drive | 2.43 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 28% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →