Kennesaw State
4-2·Conference USA· Elo 1332
45–26
Final
Florida International
3-3·Conference USA· Elo 1288
Pitbull StadiumConference gameClosing line: KENN +-3 · KENN covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KENN | 14 | 10 | 7 | 14 | 45 |
| FIU | 7 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
Team stats
KENNthis game · better side highlightedFIU
498
Total yards
518284
Passing yards
296214
Rushing yards
22220
First downs
233-9 · 33%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
FIU 1288
KENN 1332
Projected spread
FIU -0.6
incl. home edge
Model pick
FIU
52% to win
Market spread
FIU +3
sportsbook line
Model edge
FIU
3.6 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
52%
FIU · market 44%
Our model blends Elo ratings (FIU Elo 1288, KENN Elo 1332) plus home-field advantage. That projects FIU -0.6 (52% to win) — 3.6 points of value on FIU versus the market line of +3.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
FIU (top)KENN (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: FIU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- KENN pass offense (0.33 PPA) vs. FIU pass defense (0.26 allowed) — edge KENN.
- FIU pass offense (0.21 PPA) vs. KENN pass defense (0.19 allowed) — edge FIU.
- FIU rush offense (0.15 PPA) vs. KENN rush defense (0.16 allowed) — edge KENN.
Drive-by-drive
KENN 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →FIU 5/12 scoring drives
KENNPUNT3 pl, 9 yds· own 24Q1
FIUPUNT5 pl, 25 yds· own 28Q1
KENNTD7 pl, 80 yds· own 20Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
KENN up 14 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,012 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
94%
KENN went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Kennesaw State vs. Florida International?
Kennesaw State 45, Florida International 26.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked FIU, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
🤖
Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
I had FIU pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.