Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
JXSTTeam statsSHSU
- Q4 0:00JXSTGarrison Rippa 52 Yd Field Goal 29–27
- Q4 0:52SHSUChris Reed 19 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)26–27
- Q4 10:34JXSTCam Cook 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–21
- Q4 14:56JXSTGarrison Rippa 26 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 8:46SHSUChris Reed 20 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)17–21
- Q2 4:28SHSUQua'Vez Humphreys 4 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)17–14
- Q2 6:15JXSTCam Cook 2 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:13SHSULandan Brown 1 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:01JXSTGarrison Rippa 30 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:57JXSTCaden Creel 7 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–0
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- SHSU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and JXST did not face the same ones. 3rd & 10.1 vs 3rd & 6.1
- PassCaden Creel 13/17, 129 YDS
- RushCam Cook 31 CAR, 218 YDS, 2 TD
- RecPearson Baldwin 5 REC, 72 YDS
- PassHunter Watson 12/19, 136 YDS, 3 TD
- RushAlton McCaskill 14 CAR, 87 YDS
- RecChris Reed 3 REC, 63 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSHSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q4 0:52SHSU +80%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Chris Reed for 19 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 0:47JXST +55%
Caden Creel run for 4 yds to the JXST 21
- Q3 8:46SHSU +26%
Hunter Watson pass complete to Chris Reed for 20 yds for a TD Jacksonville State Penalty, Defensive Offside (Caleb Nix) declined (Christian Pavon KICK)
- Q4 10:34JXST +23%
Cam Cook run for 7 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
- Q4 14:56JXST +19%
Garrison Rippa 26 yd FG GOOD
- Q4 0:00JXST +15%
Garrison Rippa 52 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston?
Jacksonville State 29, Sam Houston 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
| JXST | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 499 | Total yards | 286 |
| 129 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 370 | Rushing yards | 150 |
| 26 | First downs | 15 |
| 4-14 | 3rd down | 4-12 |
| 3-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 13/17 | Comp/Att | 12/19 |
| 7.6 | Yards per pass | 7.2 |
| 5.9 | Yards per rush | 4.5 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 7-76 | Penalties | 5-41 |
| 35:13 | Possession | 24:47 |
Costliest call
Q3 5:01 JXST punt on 4th & 17 at SHSU 37. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.51 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 0:00JXSTGarrison Rippa 52 Yd Field Goal 29–27
- Q4 0:52SHSUChris Reed 19 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)26–27
- Q4 10:34JXSTCam Cook 7 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)26–21
- Q4 14:56JXSTGarrison Rippa 26 Yd Field Goal 20–21
- Q3 8:46SHSUChris Reed 20 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)17–21
- Q2 4:28SHSUQua'Vez Humphreys 4 Yd pass from Hunter Watson (Christian Pavon Kick)17–14
- Q2 6:15JXSTCam Cook 2 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)17–7
- Q2 10:13SHSULandan Brown 1 Yd Run (Christian Pavon Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:01JXSTGarrison Rippa 30 Yd Field Goal 10–0
- Q1 8:57JXSTCaden Creel 7 Yd Run (Garrison Rippa Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SHSU Elo 1161, JXST Elo 1529 for reference), on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +14.7 (18% to win) — 7.7 points clear of JXST's market line of +7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| JXST | SHSU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.7 (#99) | CORE overall | -30.3 (#134) |
| -4 / +7 | offense / defense | -15 / +15 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 1.26 |
| 2.19 | allowed / drive | 2.93 |
| 21% | three-and-outs | 34% |
| -12 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →