BBVA Compass StadiumNeutral siteConference gameClosing line: JXST +-7 · SHSU covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| JXST | 7 | 10 | 0 | 12 | 29 |
| SHSU | 0 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Team stats
JXSTthis game · better side highlightedSHSU
499
Total yards
286129
Passing yards
136370
Rushing yards
15026
First downs
15Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SHSU 1161
JXST 1529
Projected spread
SHSU +14.7
neutral site
Model pick
JXST
86% to win
Market spread
SHSU +7
sportsbook line
Model edge
JXST
7.7 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
14%
SHSU · market 28%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SHSU Elo 1161, JXST Elo 1529) on a neutral field. That projects SHSU +14.7 (14% to win) — 7.7 points of value on JXST versus the market line of +7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SHSU (top)JXST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SHSU 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- SHSU pass offense (0.01 PPA) vs. JXST pass defense (0.24 allowed) — edge JXST.
- JXST pass offense (0.19 PPA) vs. SHSU pass defense (0.36 allowed) — edge SHSU.
- JXST rush offense (0.20 PPA) vs. SHSU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge JXST.
Drive-by-drive
JXST 6/13 scoring drives← own end zone →SHSU 4/12 scoring drives
SHSUPUNT3 pl, -1 yds· own 25Q1
JXSTTD10 pl, 59 yds· own 41Q1
SHSUPUNT3 pl, -7 yds· own 22Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SHSU up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
65%
SHSU went on to win
A genuinely vulnerable lead — comebacks are common
FAQ
What was the final score of Jacksonville State vs. Sam Houston?
Jacksonville State 29, Sam Houston 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (JXST) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had JXST pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.