#13Pearson Baldwin

TE·Jacksonville State·2025

Pearson Baldwin is a Slot Specialist TE for Jacksonville State. Pearson's 2025 season produced 11.9 total EPA across 39 plays.

What projects, and what doesn't · TEs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.42
Beats guessing the TE average by 9%. n=2,225 TE seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.04
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=2,016 TE seasons
Total EPA (value)0.46
Beats guessing the TE average by 13%. n=2,016 TE seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Pearson Baldwin's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

26 Receptions302 Rec yards2 Rec TD11.6 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs TE peers

Efficiency100
Volume12
Explosiveness31
Consistency42
Pass-Down75

Player type

Slot Specialist TE

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency42th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among TEs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 2.08 EPA/play in Wk 12 vs Kennesaw State (SP+ -5).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Star

Top-10 nationally. Multiple mid-to-large collective deals expected.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · TE · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Johnny Langan	Rutgers	2020	59	0.300	0.0	17.7
Jordan Myers	Rice	2021	59	0.270	0.2	15.9
Johnny Langan	Rutgers	2021	37	0.240	0.0	8.9
Evan Svoboda	Wyoming	2024	75	0.290	0.5	21.8
D'Vaughn Pennamon	Ole Miss	2017	55	0.200	0.0	11.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@UCF	L10-17	-1.2	2	11	5.5	0	6	-0.24
2	vsLiberty	W34-24	-9.0	1	3	3.0	0	3	-0.10
3	@Georgia Southern	L34-41	-9.4	3	42	14.0	0	32	0.69
4	vsMurray State	W45-10	—	1	14	14.0	0	14	0.46
5	@Southern Miss	L25-42	-7.1	3	11	3.7	0	6	-0.19
7	vsSam Houston	W29-27	-27.8	5	72	14.4	0	23	1.14
8	vsDelaware	W38-25	-10.9	1	11	11.0	0	11	1.23
10	@Middle Tennessee	W24-21	-16.0	1	3	3.0	0	3	-0.61
11	@UTEP	W30-27	-17.5	1	7	7.0	0	7	-0.48
12	vsKennesaw State	W35-26	-5.4	2	60	30.0	0	52	2.08
13	@Florida International	L21-27	-10.5	3	40	13.3	1	20	0.28
14	vsWestern Kentucky	W37-34	1.6	2	18	9.0	1	16	0.48
20	vsTroy	W17-13	-4.8	1	10	10.0	0	10	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.2%

Passing plays

12.0%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

3.2%

Passing downs

6.9%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.24
Passing downs: 0.39
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.31 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).