Iowa State vs. Colorado: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ISUTeam statsCOLO
- Q4 5:13COLOAlejandro Mata 29 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 4:26COLOJoseph Williams 3 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)17–21
- Q3 9:26ISUAbu Sama III 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)17–14
- Q3 14:13COLOOmarion Miller 70 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)10–14
- Q2 0:22ISUAbu Sama III 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)10–7
- Q2 6:40ISUChase Smith 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 0:00COLOMicah Welch 8 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassRocco Becht 18/33, 205 YDS, 1 INT
- RushAbu Sama III 24 CAR, 177 YDS, 2 TD
- RecBenjamin Brahmer 5 REC, 56 YDS
- PassKaidon Salter 16/25, 255 YDS, 2 TD
- RushDallan Hayden 12 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecJoseph Williams 8 REC, 128 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCOLO up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 4:26COLO +29%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 3 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q4 5:13COLO +28%
Alejandro Mata 29 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 9:26ISU +27%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
- Q3 14:13COLO +24%
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 70 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
- Q2 0:22ISU +24%
Abu Sama III run for 1 yd for a TD (Chase Smith KICK)
- Q1 0:00COLO +19%
Micah Welch run for 8 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Iowa State vs. Colorado?
Iowa State 17, Colorado 24.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (COLO) was correct.
| ISU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| 441 | Total yards | 395 |
| 205 | Passing yards | 255 |
| 236 | Rushing yards | 140 |
| 22 | First downs | 16 |
| 2-12 | 3rd down | 7-15 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 0-1 |
| 18/33 | Comp/Att | 16/25 |
| 6.2 | Yards per pass | 10.2 |
| 6.4 | Yards per rush | 3.6 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-59 | Penalties | 6-43 |
| 29:57 | Possession | 30:03 |
Costliest call
Q1 11:59 ISU punt on 4th & 17 at COLO 33. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 1.45 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 5:13COLOAlejandro Mata 29 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q3 4:26COLOJoseph Williams 3 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)17–21
- Q3 9:26ISUAbu Sama III 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)17–14
- Q3 14:13COLOOmarion Miller 70 Yd pass from Kaidon Salter (Alejandro Mata Kick)10–14
- Q2 0:22ISUAbu Sama III 1 Yd Run (Chase Smith Kick)10–7
- Q2 6:40ISUChase Smith 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 0:00COLOMicah Welch 8 Yd Run (Alejandro Mata Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (COLO Elo 1599, ISU Elo 1634 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects COLO -1 (54% to win) — 4.0 points clear of COLO's market line of +3. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#101 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #93 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #38 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Colorado leads 50–15–1 · Colorado has won 2 straight · 38% have been one-possession games
| ISU | COLO | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.4 (#51) | CORE overall | -11.9 (#101) |
| +2 / -4 | offense / defense | -5 / +7 |
| 2.26 | points / drive | 1.79 |
| 2.08 | allowed / drive | 2.55 |
| 23% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →