| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ISU | 0 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| COLO | 7 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 24 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (COLO Elo 1599, ISU Elo 1634) plus home-field advantage. That projects COLO -1 (53% to win) — 4.0 points of value on COLO versus the market line of +3.
COLO up 4 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,449 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Iowa State 17, Colorado 24.
Yes — the model's pick (COLO) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had COLO pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Omarion Miller for 70 yds for a TD (Alejandro Mata KICK)
Kaidon Salter pass complete to Joseph Williams for 38 yds to the ISU 33 for a 1ST down
Rocco Becht pass intercepted Tawfiq Byard return for 18 yds to the COLO 19
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