Illinois
4-1·Big Ten· Elo 1571
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ILL | 0 | 27 | 13 | 3 | 43 |
| PUR | 7 | 7 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (PUR Elo 1325, ILL Elo 1571) plus home-field advantage. That projects PUR +7.4 (29% to win), essentially in line with the market.
ILL up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Illinois 43, Purdue 27.
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ILL pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Ryan Browne pass complete to Corey Smith for 60 yds for a TD (Spencer Porath KICK)
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 62 yds for a TD (David Olano KICK)
Luke Altmyer pass complete to Hank Beatty for 49 yds to the PUR 1 for a 1ST down
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