Illinois vs. Purdue: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ILLTeam statsPUR
- Q4 1:06ILLDavid Olano 40 Yd Field Goal 43–27
- Q4 12:34PURDevin Mockobee 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–27
- Q3 1:19ILLKaden Feagin 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)40–21
- Q3 5:16ILLDavid Olano 34 Yd Field Goal 33–21
- Q3 9:01PURAntonio Harris 41 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)30–21
- Q3 11:44ILLDavid Olano 45 Yd Field Goal 30–14
- Q2 0:00ILLDavid Olano 42 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 1:13PURCorey Smith 60 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:25ILLCa'Lil Valentine 25 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)24–7
- Q2 3:52ILLKaden Feagin 6 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)17–7
- Q2 12:50ILLHank Beatty 62 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:56ILLDavid Olano 35 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:27PURRyan Browne 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassLuke Altmyer 19/22, 390 YDS, 1 TD
- RushCa'Lil Valentine 22 CAR, 95 YDS, 1 TD
- RecHank Beatty 5 REC, 186 YDS, 1 TD
- PassRyan Browne 30/50, 302 YDS, 1 TD
- RushAntonio Harris 4 CAR, 69 YDS, 1 TD
- RecMichael Jackson III 14 REC, 94 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsILL up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 13:21PUR +7%
Jack McCallister punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Hank Beatty at the ILL 13
FAQ
What was the final score of Illinois vs. Purdue?
Illinois 43, Purdue 27.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ILL) was correct.
| ILL | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| 507 | Total yards | 453 |
| 390 | Passing yards | 302 |
| 117 | Rushing yards | 151 |
| 22 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-11 | 3rd down | 5-13 |
| 0-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 19/22 | Comp/Att | 30/50 |
| 17.7 | Yards per pass | 6.0 |
| 2.9 | Yards per rush | 6.0 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 4-31 | Penalties | 8-61 |
| 34:32 | Possession | 25:28 |
Costliest call
Q2 3:03 PUR punt on 4th & 2 at PUR 43. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.60 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:06ILLDavid Olano 40 Yd Field Goal 43–27
- Q4 12:34PURDevin Mockobee 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)40–27
- Q3 1:19ILLKaden Feagin 1 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)40–21
- Q3 5:16ILLDavid Olano 34 Yd Field Goal 33–21
- Q3 9:01PURAntonio Harris 41 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)30–21
- Q3 11:44ILLDavid Olano 45 Yd Field Goal 30–14
- Q2 0:00ILLDavid Olano 42 Yd Field Goal 27–14
- Q2 1:13PURCorey Smith 60 Yd pass from Ryan Browne (Spencer Porath Kick)24–14
- Q2 2:25ILLCa'Lil Valentine 25 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)24–7
- Q2 3:52ILLKaden Feagin 6 Yd Run (David Olano Kick)17–7
- Q2 12:50ILLHank Beatty 62 Yd pass from Luke Altmyer (David Olano Kick)10–7
- Q2 14:56ILLDavid Olano 35 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 7:27PURRyan Browne 1 Yd Run (Spencer Porath Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (PUR Elo 1325, ILL Elo 1571 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects PUR +7.4 (32% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesThe series is level at 47–47–6 · Illinois has won 2 straight · 41% have been one-possession games
| ILL | PUR | |
|---|---|---|
| +11.1 (#36) | CORE overall | -9.5 (#93) |
| +10 / -1 | offense / defense | -4 / +5 |
| 2.76 | points / drive | 1.57 |
| 2.56 | allowed / drive | 3.07 |
| 18% | three-and-outs | 30% |
| +3 | pass over expected | +3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →