Carter-Finley StadiumConference gameClosing line: GT +-4.5 · NCSU covered
Sat, Nov 1, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GT | 7 | 10 | 13 | 6 | 36 |
| NCSU | 14 | 10 | 14 | 10 | 48 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (NCSU Elo 1459, GT Elo 1651) plus home-field advantage. That projects NCSU +5.3 (35% to win), essentially in line with the market.
NCSU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Georgia Tech 36, NC State 48.
No — the model picked GT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had GT pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
Teddy Hoffmann 55 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
(04:38) Shotgun #11 C.Bailey pass complete deep right to #9 T.Anderson caught at GT25, for 51 yards to the GT16 (#1 C.Spaulding), 1ST DOWN
(08:09) Shotgun #10 H.King pass complete short middle to #85 J.Allen caught at GT40, for 50 yards to the NCSU27 (#33 K.Soares, Jr.), out of bounds, 1ST DOWN
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