Georgia Tech vs. NC State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GTTeam statsNCSU
- Q4 2:22GTZion Taylor 16 Yd pass from Haynes King (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)36–48
- Q4 4:07NCSUJayden Scott 30 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)30–48
- Q4 9:46NCSUKanoah Vinesett 37 Yd Field Goal 30–41
- Q3 0:08GTHaynes King 3 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)30–38
- Q3 2:49NCSUTeddy Hoffmann 55 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)23–38
- Q3 4:52GTAidan Birr 29 Yd Field Goal 23–31
- Q3 7:00NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)20–31
- Q3 8:10GTAidan Birr 23 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 0:00NCSUKanoah Vinesett 34 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 3:01NCSUCody Hardy 0 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)17–21
- Q2 3:07NCSU(Kanoah Vinesett Kick)17–21
- Q2 6:25GTJ.T. Byrne 2 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)17–14
- Q2 13:49GTAidan Birr 43 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 1:59NCSUCJ Bailey 11 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:49GTHaynes King 12 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:49NCSUCody Hardy 5 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassHaynes King 25/35, 408 YDS, 2 TD, 1 INT
- RushHaynes King 20 CAR, 103 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJordan Allen 5 REC, 110 YDS
- PassCJ Bailey 24/32, 340 YDS, 2 TD
- RushJayden Scott 24 CAR, 196 YDS, 1 TD
- RecNoah Rogers 8 REC, 96 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsNCSU up 8 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,588 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q3 7:00NCSU +32%
Will Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
- Q2 6:25GT +21%
H. King pass to J.T. Byrne for 2 yds, for a TD (A. Birr KICK) (K. Vinesett KICK)
- Q4 9:46NCSU +21%
Kanoah Vinesett 37 Yd Field Goal
- Q1 1:59NCSU +20%
CJ Bailey run for 11 yds, for a TD (K. Vinesett KICK)
- Q1 8:49NCSU +19%
Cody Hardy 5 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)
- Q2 0:56NCSU +19%
#33 A.Birr field goal attempt from 54 yards NO GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. NC State?
Georgia Tech 36, NC State 48.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked GT, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GT | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| 559 | Total yards | 583 |
| 408 | Passing yards | 340 |
| 151 | Rushing yards | 243 |
| 30 | First downs | 26 |
| 6-11 | 3rd down | 7-11 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 25/37 | Comp/Att | 24/33 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 10.3 |
| 4.6 | Yards per rush | 7.1 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 4-23 | Penalties | 7-64 |
| 28:35 | Possession | 31:25 |
Costliest call
Q2 0:56 GT field goal on 4th & 7 at NCSU 37. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.17 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:22GTZion Taylor 16 Yd pass from Haynes King (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)36–48
- Q4 4:07NCSUJayden Scott 30 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)30–48
- Q4 9:46NCSUKanoah Vinesett 37 Yd Field Goal 30–41
- Q3 0:08GTHaynes King 3 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)30–38
- Q3 2:49NCSUTeddy Hoffmann 55 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)23–38
- Q3 4:52GTAidan Birr 29 Yd Field Goal 23–31
- Q3 7:00NCSUWill Wilson 1 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)20–31
- Q3 8:10GTAidan Birr 23 Yd Field Goal 20–24
- Q2 0:00NCSUKanoah Vinesett 34 Yd Field Goal 17–24
- Q2 3:01NCSUCody Hardy 0 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)17–21
- Q2 3:07NCSU(Kanoah Vinesett Kick)17–21
- Q2 6:25GTJ.T. Byrne 2 Yd pass from Haynes King (Aidan Birr Kick)17–14
- Q2 13:49GTAidan Birr 43 Yd Field Goal 10–14
- Q1 1:59NCSUCJ Bailey 11 Yd Run (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)7–14
- Q1 6:49GTHaynes King 12 Yd Run (Aidan Birr Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:49NCSUCody Hardy 5 Yd pass from CJ Bailey (Kanoah Vinesett Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (NCSU Elo 1459, GT Elo 1651 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects NCSU +5.3 (37% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#67 of 112 in 2025 by biggest miss · #82 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #6 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Georgia Tech leads 21–12 · 45% have been one-possession games
| GT | NCSU | |
|---|---|---|
| +10.6 (#38) | CORE overall | +7.0 (#48) |
| +13 / +3 | offense / defense | +6 / -1 |
| 2.86 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 2.39 | allowed / drive | 2.59 |
| 22% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +5 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
Create a free account →You get Pro free for 6 months. No card required.
Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →