Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GT | 7 | 7 | 3 | 19 | 36 |
| BC | 0 | 14 | 14 | 6 | 34 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BC 1298
GT 1612
Projected spread
BC +10.2
incl. home edge
Model pick
GT
77% to win
Market spread
BC +16.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
BC
6.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
23%
BC · market 14%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BC Elo 1298, GT Elo 1612) plus home-field advantage. That projects BC +10.2 (23% to win) — 6.3 points of value on BC versus the market line of +16.5.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BC (top)GT (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BC 0%
Key matchups · Pro
- GT rush offense (0.19 PPA) vs. BC rush defense (0.12 allowed) — edge GT.
- BC rush offense (0.05 PPA) vs. GT rush defense (0.11 allowed) — edge GT.
- BC pass offense (0.25 PPA) vs. GT pass defense (0.29 allowed) — edge GT.
Drive-by-drive
GT 7/11 scoring drives← own end zone →BC 5/11 scoring drives
GTPUNT8 pl, 26 yds· own 31Q1
BCPUNT6 pl, 61 yds· own 1Q1
GTTD7 pl, 83 yds· own 17Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BC up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
88%
BC went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia Tech vs. Boston College?
Georgia Tech 36, Boston College 34.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (GT) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had GT pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.