Brooks Stadium (SC)Conference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GAST | 14 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 27 |
| CCU | 14 | 9 | 10 | 7 | 40 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
CCU 1309
GAST 1107
Projected spread
CCU -10.5
incl. home edge
Model pick
CCU
78% to win
Market spread
CCU -7
sportsbook line
Model edge
CCU
3.5 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
78%
CCU · market 71%
Our model blends Elo ratings (CCU Elo 1309, GAST Elo 1107) plus home-field advantage. That projects CCU -10.5 (78% to win) — 3.5 points of value on CCU versus the market line of -7.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
CCU (top)GAST (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: CCU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. GAST pass defense (0.43 allowed) — edge GAST.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. GAST rush defense (0.18 allowed) — edge GAST.
- GAST rush offense (0.06 PPA) vs. CCU rush defense (0.15 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
GAST 4/14 scoring drives← own end zone →CCU 8/12 scoring drives
GASTPUNT6 pl, 34 yds· own 25Q1
CCUTD1 pl, 85 yds· own 15Q1
GASTTD13 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
CCU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
97%
CCU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina?
Georgia State 27, Coastal Carolina 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CCU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had CCU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.