Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsCCU
- Q4 6:41GASTTed Hurst 9 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Liam Rickman Kick)27–40
- Q4 7:42GASTJordon Simmons 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–40
- Q4 11:35CCUKarmello English 31 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–40
- Q3 1:41CCUKarmello English 3 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Philippe Laforge Kick)14–33
- Q3 9:39CCUPhilippe Laforge 47 Yd Field Goal 14–26
- Q2 0:12CCUKian Afrookhteh 28 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 6:47CCUKian Afrookhteh 34 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 11:36CCUKian Afrookhteh 30 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 0:56GASTGrant Hollier 8 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:36CCURobby Washington 16 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:07GASTCameran Brown 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:34CCUSamari Collier 85 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTJ Finley 16/26, 177 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJordon Simmons 20 CAR, 99 YDS, 1 TD
- RecTed Hurst III 10 REC, 165 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSamari Collier 11/18, 120 YDS, 3 TD
- RushSamari Collier 10 CAR, 123 YDS, 1 TD
- RecKarmello English 4 REC, 63 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCCU up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:34CCU +43%
No Huddle-Shotgun #10 S.Collier rush middle for 85 yards gain to the GSU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q4 4:21GAST +26%
No Huddle-Shotgun #4 T.Finley pass incomplete short left to #30 R.Amos thrown to GSU14
- Q4 4:15CCU +24%
#29 E.Sebafundi punt 34 yards to the GSU11 fair catch by #5 J.Robinson at GSU11
- Q4 6:39GAST +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #23 D.Murray Jr. rush middle for 3 yards gain to the GSU49 (#20 L.Murphy)
- Q1 0:56GAST +15%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown pass complete short middle to #85 G.Hollier caught at Chants02, for 8 yards to the Chants00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 5:07GAST +14%
No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Brown rush middle for 1 yard gain to the Chants00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Coastal Carolina?
Georgia State 27, Coastal Carolina 40.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CCU) was correct.
| GAST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| 423 | Total yards | 444 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 120 |
| 130 | Rushing yards | 324 |
| 20 | First downs | 19 |
| 3-13 | 3rd down | 6-15 |
| 2-5 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 25/38 | Comp/Att | 11/18 |
| 7.7 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.5 | Yards per rush | 6.9 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 6-40 | Penalties | 5-40 |
| 31:01 | Possession | 28:59 |
Costliest call
Q3 12:43 CCU punt on 4th & 2 at CCU 48. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.88 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 6:41GASTTed Hurst 9 Yd pass from TJ Finley (Liam Rickman Kick)27–40
- Q4 7:42GASTJordon Simmons 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)20–40
- Q4 11:35CCUKarmello English 31 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)14–40
- Q3 1:41CCUKarmello English 3 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Philippe Laforge Kick)14–33
- Q3 9:39CCUPhilippe Laforge 47 Yd Field Goal 14–26
- Q2 0:12CCUKian Afrookhteh 28 Yd Field Goal 14–23
- Q2 6:47CCUKian Afrookhteh 34 Yd Field Goal 14–20
- Q2 11:36CCUKian Afrookhteh 30 Yd Field Goal 14–17
- Q1 0:56GASTGrant Hollier 8 Yd pass from Cameran Brown (Liam Rickman Kick)14–14
- Q1 1:36CCURobby Washington 16 Yd pass from Samari Collier (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:07GASTCameran Brown 1 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:34CCUSamari Collier 85 Yd Run (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (CCU Elo 1309, GAST Elo 1107 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects CCU -10.5 (76% to win) — 3.5 points clear of CCU's market line of -7. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesCoastal Carolina leads 5–4 · Coastal Carolina has won 2 straight · 33% have been one-possession games
| GAST | CCU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.7 (#117) | CORE overall | -16.4 (#115) |
| -6 / +11 | offense / defense | -8 / +8 |
| 1.62 | points / drive | 1.56 |
| 3.54 | allowed / drive | 2.54 |
| 26% | three-and-outs | 35% |
| +3 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →