#2TJ Finley

QB·Georgia State·2025 2023

TJ Finley is a Clutch Passer for Georgia State. TJ's 2025 season ranks in the 0th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 180 plays — a developing rate for the QB.

What projects, and what doesn't · QBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.46
Beats guessing the QB average by 16%. n=2,421 QB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.05
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=1,965 QB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.51
Beats guessing the QB average by 20%. n=1,965 QB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So TJ Finley's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Passing

127/201 Comp/Att1244 Pass yards6 Pass TD7 INT63.2% Comp %

Rushing

-51 Rush yards0 Rush TD28 Carries-1.8 Yards/carry

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs QB peers

Efficiency0
Volume100
Dual-Threat27
Consistency73
Clutch100

Player type

Clutch Passer

Elevates on passing downs — 3rd-and-medium, two-minute drills, and pressure situations are where this QB is best.

3rd-down precisionLate-game valueHigh passing-down EPA

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)0th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency73th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs QB peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High-volume role — one of the team's most-used QBs by play share.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.19 EPA/play decline from first to second half.

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	C/ATT	Pass Yds	Pass TD	INT	QBR	Rush Yds	EPA/play
2	vsMemphis	L16-38	7.6	21/29	201	0	1	37.5	-9	0.32
3	vsMurray State	W37-21	—	11/18	150	1	2	18.5	-2	0.12
4	@Vanderbilt	L21-70	20.3	22/35	176	2	0	54.3	-6	0.26
6	vsJames Madison	L7-14	12.3	19/28	198	1	0	50.7	-21	0.25
7	vsApp State	L20-41	-11.4	13/26	91	0	1	15.5	-8	-0.13
11	@Coastal Carolina	L27-40	-15.1	16/26	177	1	1	44.5	4	0.09
12	vsMarshall	L18-30	-4.5	25/39	251	1	2	31.1	-9	0.15

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

42.2%

Passing plays

64.4%

Rushing plays

7.9%

Standard downs

38.1%

Passing downs

49.7%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: -0.01
Passing downs: 0.31
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.13 / 0.03

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2023 · 13 games

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.