| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| UK | 3 | 21 | 7 | 7 | 38 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (UK Elo 1535, FLA Elo 1655) plus home-field advantage. That projects UK +2.4 (43% to win) — 2.6 points of value on UK versus the market line of +5.
UK up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 555 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Florida 7, Kentucky 38.
No — the model picked FLA, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
I had FLA pregame and it didn't hit. We report the misses — that was one.
(12:26) No Huddle-Shotgun #2 D.Dowdell rush middle for 65 yards gain to the UF00 TOUCHDOWN, clock 12:16, 1ST DOWN #91 J.Kauwe kick attempt good (H: #93 W.Berry, LS: #42 A.McLaughlin)
End of 2nd quarter.
(00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush left for 3 yards loss to the UF22 fumbled by #8 C.Boley at UF20 forced by #28 D.Moore recovered by UF #8 A.Chiles at UF22, End Of Play. The previous play is under automatic review - "Fumble". CALL OVERTURNED. (Original Play: (00:29) No Huddle-Shotgun #8 C.Boley rush left for 2 yards loss to the UF21 (#28 D.Moore))
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