Colorado State vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CSUTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 2:29BOISSeth Knothe 9 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)21–49
- Q4 5:48BOISMalik Sherrod 24 Yd Run (Max Cutforth Pass to Cameron Bates for Two-Point Conversion)21–42
- Q4 9:32CSUTay Lanier 6 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–34
- Q4 11:09CSULloyd Avant 4 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–34
- Q3 1:48BOISSire Gaines 8 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–34
- Q2 0:06BOISColton Boomer 32 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 1:59BOISDylan Riley 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:37BOISColton Boomer 27 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 11:32BOISMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:27CSURocky Beers 3 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:55BOISSire Gaines 3 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CSU lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 16% explosive on a 38% success rate
- PassDarius Curry 26/46, 293 YDS, 2 TD, 3 INT
- RushDarius Curry 6 CAR, 23 YDS
- RecRocky Beers 7 REC, 94 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMax Cutforth 22/34, 239 YDS
- RushSire Gaines 22 CAR, 149 YDS, 2 TD
- RecLatrell Caples 7 REC, 70 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:32BOIS +10%
#8 M.Sherrod rush right for 1 yard gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 5:27CSU +9%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short right to #81 R.Beers caught at BOI02, for 3 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q1 8:55BOIS +8%
#26 S.Gaines rush left for 3 yards gain to the CSU00 TOUCHDOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Boise State?
Colorado State 21, Boise State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| CSU | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 332 | Total yards | 533 |
| 293 | Passing yards | 254 |
| 39 | Rushing yards | 279 |
| 17 | First downs | 32 |
| 6-13 | 3rd down | 7-13 |
| 0-2 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 26/46 | Comp/Att | 23/35 |
| 6.4 | Yards per pass | 7.3 |
| 2.3 | Yards per rush | 5.4 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-80 | Penalties | 9-95 |
| 23:05 | Possession | 36:55 |
Costliest call
Q1 1:10 CSU punt on 4th & 4 at BOIS 45. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.69 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:29BOISSeth Knothe 9 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)21–49
- Q4 5:48BOISMalik Sherrod 24 Yd Run (Max Cutforth Pass to Cameron Bates for Two-Point Conversion)21–42
- Q4 9:32CSUTay Lanier 6 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)21–34
- Q4 11:09CSULloyd Avant 4 Yd Run (Isaiah Hankins Kick)14–34
- Q3 1:48BOISSire Gaines 8 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–34
- Q2 0:06BOISColton Boomer 32 Yd Field Goal 7–27
- Q2 1:59BOISDylan Riley 2 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–24
- Q2 3:37BOISColton Boomer 27 Yd Field Goal 7–17
- Q2 11:32BOISMalik Sherrod 1 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)7–14
- Q1 5:27CSURocky Beers 3 Yd pass from Darius Curry (Isaiah Hankins Kick)7–7
- Q1 8:55BOISSire Gaines 3 Yd Run (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1589, CSU Elo 1223 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -17 (87% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesBoise State leads 13–1 · 29% have been one-possession games
| CSU | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -19.4 (#123) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#55) |
| -8 / +12 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 1.58 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.91 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 38% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +1 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →