Albertsons StadiumConference gameClosing line: BOIS -17.5 · BOIS covered
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| BOIS | 7 | 20 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
Team stats
CSUthis game · better side highlightedBOIS
332
Total yards
533293
Passing yards
25439
Rushing yards
27917
First downs
326-13 · 46%
Third down
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
BOIS 1589
CSU 1223
Projected spread
BOIS -17
incl. home edge
Model pick
BOIS
90% to win
Market spread
BOIS -17.5
sportsbook line
Model edge
None
aligned w/ market
Win prob: model / mkt
90%
BOIS · market 86%
Our model blends Elo ratings (BOIS Elo 1589, CSU Elo 1223) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -17 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
BOIS (top)CSU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: BOIS 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- BOIS pass offense (0.27 PPA) vs. CSU pass defense (0.38 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU pass offense (0.20 PPA) vs. BOIS pass defense (0.08 allowed) — edge CSU.
- CSU rush offense (0.09 PPA) vs. BOIS rush defense (0.20 allowed) — edge BOIS.
Drive-by-drive
CSU 3/14 scoring drives← own end zone →BOIS 8/14 scoring drives
BOISTD14 pl, 79 yds· own 21Q1
CSUTD8 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
BOISPUNT3 pl, -4 yds· own 23Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
BOIS up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
99%
BOIS went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Colorado State vs. Boise State?
Colorado State 21, Boise State 49.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.