Sun, Nov 23, 12:00 AM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSU | 7 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 21 |
| BOIS | 7 | 20 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BOIS Elo 1589, CSU Elo 1223) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -17 (90% to win), essentially in line with the market.
BOIS up 27 entering the 4th quarter. Across 532 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Colorado State 21, Boise State 49.
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
(14:00) Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete short right to #24 J.Kinnard caught at CSU07, for 91 yards to the BOI00 TOUCHDOWN nullified by penalty, clock 13:53, 1ST DOWN, PENALTY CSU UNS: Unsportsmanlike Conduct (#24 J.Kinnard) 15 yards from BOI12 to BOI27
(01:45) No Huddle-Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass complete deep left to #81 R.Beers caught at CSU47, for 40 yards to the BOI35 (#0 T.Benefield; #6 J.Earby), 1ST DOWN
(10:17) Shotgun #3 D.Curry pass intercepted by #6 J.Earby at BOI10, End Of Play
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