Williams-Brice Stadium
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| SC | 20 | 17 | 7 | 7 | 51 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
SC 1645
CCU 1313
Projected spread
SC -15.7
incl. home edge
Model pick
SC
88% to win
Market spread
SC -24
sportsbook line
Model edge
CCU
8.3 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
88%
SC · market 93%
Our model blends Elo ratings (SC Elo 1645, CCU Elo 1313) plus home-field advantage. That projects SC -15.7 (88% to win) — 8.3 points of value on CCU versus the market line of -24.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
SC (top)CCU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: SC 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- SC pass offense (0.17 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge CCU.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. SC rush defense (-0.06 allowed) — edge CCU.
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. SC pass defense (0.25 allowed) — edge SC.
Drive-by-drive
CCU 0/11 scoring drives← own end zone →SC 9/12 scoring drives
SCTD1 pl, 75 yds· own 25Q1
CCUPUNT5 pl, 15 yds· own 25Q1
SCTD6 pl, 74 yds· own 26Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
SC up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
SC went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina?
Coastal Carolina 7, South Carolina 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had SC pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.