Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsSC
- Q4 1:56SCB. Dunn run for 1 yd, for a TD (W. Joyce KICK)7–51
- Q4 9:37CCUJameson Tucker 17 Yd Punt Return (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–44
- Q3 1:44SCBrady Hunt 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–44
- Q2 0:01SCWilliam Joyce 47 Yd Field Goal 0–37
- Q2 5:05SCLaNorris Sellers 5 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–34
- Q2 9:14SCDonovan Murph 3 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)0–27
- Q1 7:27SCBrady Hunt 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–20
- Q1 8:50SCLaNorris Sellers 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–13
- Q1 14:46SCJayden Sellers 75 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)0–7
How the model called it
- PassTad Hudson 27/36, 174 YDS
- RushJa'Vin Simpkins 8 CAR, 26 YDS
- RecCameron Wright 4 REC, 33 YDS
- PassLaNorris Sellers 16/20, 274 YDS, 2 TD
- RushLaNorris Sellers 8 CAR, 82 YDS, 2 TD
- RecJayden Sellers 4 REC, 127 YDS, 1 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsSC up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. South Carolina?
Coastal Carolina 7, South Carolina 51.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (SC) was correct.
| CCU | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| 220 | Total yards | 579 |
| 174 | Passing yards | 315 |
| 46 | Rushing yards | 264 |
| 13 | First downs | 25 |
| 5-15 | 3rd down | 6-11 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 1-1 |
| 27/36 | Comp/Att | 23/30 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 1.6 | Yards per rush | 6.8 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 5-63 | Penalties | 7-43 |
| 26:10 | Possession | 33:50 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:53 SC punt on 4th & 1 at SC 18. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.89 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56SCB. Dunn run for 1 yd, for a TD (W. Joyce KICK)7–51
- Q4 9:37CCUJameson Tucker 17 Yd Punt Return (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–44
- Q3 1:44SCBrady Hunt 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–44
- Q2 0:01SCWilliam Joyce 47 Yd Field Goal 0–37
- Q2 5:05SCLaNorris Sellers 5 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–34
- Q2 9:14SCDonovan Murph 3 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)0–27
- Q1 7:27SCBrady Hunt 1 Yd Run (William Joyce Kick)0–20
- Q1 8:50SCLaNorris Sellers 2 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)0–13
- Q1 14:46SCJayden Sellers 75 Yd pass from LaNorris Sellers (William Joyce Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (SC Elo 1645, CCU Elo 1313 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects SC -15.7 (85% to win) — 8.3 points clear of CCU's market line of -24. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CCU | SC | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#115) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#53) |
| -8 / +8 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 1.48 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 1.63 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 27% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →