Coastal Carolina vs. Old Dominion: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CCUTeam statsODU
- Q4 1:56ODURiley Callaghan 26 Yd Field Goal 7–47
- Q4 12:20CCUCameron Wright 3 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–44
- Q3 7:02ODURiley Callaghan 22 Yd Field Goal 0–44
- Q3 12:50ODUColton Joseph 50 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–41
- Q2 2:48ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 10 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–34
- Q2 4:48ODURiley Callaghan 34 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 6:05ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 13 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–24
- Q2 12:54ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 80 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:19ODURiley Callaghan 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:44ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 3 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- CCU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and ODU did not face the same ones. 3rd & 7.8 vs 3rd & 5.4
- PassTad Hudson 19/30, 108 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushJa'Vin Simpkins 8 CAR, 39 YDS
- RecEli Aragon-Cruz 4 REC, 35 YDS
- PassColton Joseph 17/30, 315 YDS, 4 TD
- RushTrequan Jones 14 CAR, 98 YDS
- RecNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 7 REC, 101 YDS, 3 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsODU up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:44ODU +9%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Na'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding for 3 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
- Q2 12:54ODU +5%
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 80 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Old Dominion?
Coastal Carolina 7, Old Dominion 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
| CCU | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| 189 | Total yards | 619 |
| 108 | Passing yards | 317 |
| 81 | Rushing yards | 302 |
| 12 | First downs | 29 |
| 7-17 | 3rd down | 7-14 |
| 1-3 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/30 | Comp/Att | 18/34 |
| 3.6 | Yards per pass | 9.3 |
| 2.2 | Yards per rush | 7.0 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 6-50 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 30:26 | Possession | 29:34 |
Costliest call
Q2 1:38 CCU punt on 4th & 1 at CCU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:56ODURiley Callaghan 26 Yd Field Goal 7–47
- Q4 12:20CCUCameron Wright 3 Yd pass from Tad Hudson (Kian Afrookhteh Kick)7–44
- Q3 7:02ODURiley Callaghan 22 Yd Field Goal 0–44
- Q3 12:50ODUColton Joseph 50 Yd Run (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–41
- Q2 2:48ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 10 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–34
- Q2 4:48ODURiley Callaghan 34 Yd Field Goal 0–27
- Q2 6:05ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 13 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–24
- Q2 12:54ODUKe'Travion Hargrove 80 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–17
- Q1 2:19ODURiley Callaghan 27 Yd Field Goal 0–10
- Q1 11:44ODUNa'eem Abdul-Rahim Gladding 3 Yd pass from Colton Joseph (Riley Callaghan Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (ODU Elo 1551, CCU Elo 1259 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects ODU -14.1 (83% to win) — 4.9 points clear of CCU's market line of -19. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CCU | ODU | |
|---|---|---|
| -16.4 (#115) | CORE overall | +18.9 (#17) |
| -8 / +8 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 1.56 | points / drive | 2.46 |
| 2.54 | allowed / drive | 1.52 |
| 35% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -3 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →