S.B. Ballard StadiumConference game
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| ODU | 10 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 47 |
Gridpex Model Prediction
Power rating (Elo)
ODU 1551
CCU 1259
Projected spread
ODU -14.1
incl. home edge
Model pick
ODU
85% to win
Market spread
ODU -19
sportsbook line
Model edge
CCU
4.9 pts of value
Win prob: model / mkt
85%
ODU · market 87%
Our model blends Elo ratings (ODU Elo 1551, CCU Elo 1259) plus home-field advantage. That projects ODU -14.1 (85% to win) — 4.9 points of value on CCU versus the market line of -19.
Win Probability
Hover over the chart to see play details
ODU (top)CCU (bottom)· colored dots = scoresFinal: ODU 100%
Key matchups · Pro
- ODU pass offense (0.41 PPA) vs. CCU pass defense (0.31 allowed) — edge ODU.
- CCU rush offense (0.07 PPA) vs. ODU rush defense (0.01 allowed) — edge CCU.
- CCU pass offense (0.14 PPA) vs. ODU pass defense (0.09 allowed) — edge CCU.
Drive-by-drive
CCU 1/14 scoring drives← own end zone →ODU 9/13 scoring drives
ODUTD9 pl, 87 yds· own 13Q1
CCUPUNT4 pl, -3 yds· own 13Q1
ODUPUNT3 pl, 6 yds· own 45Q1
Comparable Situations — historical outcomes
ODU up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
100%
ODU went on to win
A near-lock historically
FAQ
What was the final score of Coastal Carolina vs. Old Dominion?
Coastal Carolina 7, Old Dominion 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
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Gridiron IQ Model
Pinned · the model's take
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.