Sat, Oct 4, 10:00 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CCU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| ODU | 10 | 24 | 10 | 3 | 47 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (ODU Elo 1551, CCU Elo 1259) plus home-field advantage. That projects ODU -14.1 (85% to win) — 4.9 points of value on CCU versus the market line of -19.
ODU up 44 entering the 4th quarter. Across 179 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
Coastal Carolina 7, Old Dominion 47.
Yes — the model's pick (ODU) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had ODU pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Colton Joseph pass complete to Ke'Travion Hargrove for 80 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
Colton Joseph run for 50 yds for a TD (Riley Callaghan KICK)
Colton Joseph pass complete to Tre' Brown III for 49 yds to the CCU 3 for a 1ST down
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