Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
CINTeam statsOKST
- Q4 4:39CINManny Covey 9 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)49–17
- Q4 6:05CINMatthew McDoom 100 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Rusnak Kick)42–17
- Q4 13:21CINBrendan Sorsby 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)35–17
- Q3 10:39OKSTRodney Fields Jr. 20 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)28–17
- Q2 0:13CINCyrus Allen 12 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)28–10
- Q2 8:44CINJoe Royer 27 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)21–10
- Q2 11:12OKSTSam Jackson V 6 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:54CINCyrus Allen 14 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:10OKSTLogan Ward 33 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:54CINCyrus Allen 26 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassBrendan Sorsby 21/30, 284 YDS, 4 TD
- RushEvan Pryor 9 CAR, 63 YDS
- RecJoe Royer 5 REC, 63 YDS, 1 TD
- PassSam Jackson V 11/19, 149 YDS, 1 INT
- RushRodney Fields Jr. 21 CAR, 163 YDS, 1 TD
- RecShamar Rigby 1 REC, 48 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsCIN up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 11:54CIN +9%
Cyrus Allen 26 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
- Q2 11:12OKST +9%
S. Jackson V run for 6 yds for a TD (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK) (L. Ward KICK)
- Q2 8:44CIN +8%
Joe Royer 27 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
- Q2 14:54CIN +7%
Cyrus Allen 14 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)
FAQ
What was the final score of Cincinnati vs. Oklahoma State?
Cincinnati 49, Oklahoma State 17.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (CIN) was correct.
| CIN | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| 427 | Total yards | 377 |
| 284 | Passing yards | 149 |
| 143 | Rushing yards | 228 |
| 26 | First downs | 21 |
| 6-10 | 3rd down | 6-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 1-3 |
| 21/30 | Comp/Att | 11/19 |
| 9.5 | Yards per pass | 7.8 |
| 4.8 | Yards per rush | 4.8 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 6-71 | Penalties | 8-70 |
| 23:18 | Possession | 36:42 |
Costliest call
Q4 7:01 OKST go for it on 4th & 6 at CIN 23. The model preferred field goal, a gap of 0.57 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 4:39CINManny Covey 9 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)49–17
- Q4 6:05CINMatthew McDoom 100 Yd Interception Return (Stephen Rusnak Kick)42–17
- Q4 13:21CINBrendan Sorsby 1 Yd Run (Stephen Rusnak Kick)35–17
- Q3 10:39OKSTRodney Fields Jr. 20 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)28–17
- Q2 0:13CINCyrus Allen 12 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)28–10
- Q2 8:44CINJoe Royer 27 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)21–10
- Q2 11:12OKSTSam Jackson V 6 Yd Run (Logan Ward Kick)14–10
- Q2 14:54CINCyrus Allen 14 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)14–3
- Q1 4:10OKSTLogan Ward 33 Yd Field Goal 7–3
- Q1 11:54CINCyrus Allen 26 Yd pass from Brendan Sorsby (Stephen Rusnak Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (OKST Elo 1107, CIN Elo 1558 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects OKST +15.6 (16% to win) — 7.9 points clear of OKST's market line of +23.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| CIN | OKST | |
|---|---|---|
| +6.7 (#50) | CORE overall | -22.9 (#130) |
| +12 / +5 | offense / defense | -12 / +11 |
| 2.63 | points / drive | 1.02 |
| 2.77 | allowed / drive | 2.92 |
| 31% | three-and-outs | 38% |
| +0 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →