Boston College vs. Louisville: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
BCTeam statsLOU
- Q4 1:49LOUKeyjuan Brown 67 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)24–38
- Q4 6:17BCJeremiah Franklin 21 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)24–31
- Q4 8:13LOUCooper Ranvier 41 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 7:34LOUCaullin Lacy 22 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)17–28
- Q3 14:08BCKaelan Chudzinski 23 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)17–21
- Q2 1:02LOUIsaac Brown 62 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)10–21
- Q2 1:42LOUMiller Moss 9 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:56BCLewis Bond 6 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:49LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:36BCLuca Lombardo 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassGrayson James 23/46, 244 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushJordan McDonald 19 CAR, 80 YDS
- RecKaelan Chudzinski 4 REC, 80 YDS, 1 TD
- PassMiller Moss 15/27, 187 YDS, 1 TD, 1 INT
- RushIsaac Brown 14 CAR, 205 YDS, 1 TD
- RecChris Bell 4 REC, 49 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsLOU up 11 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,142 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:42LOU +17%
Shotgun #7 M.Moss rush left for 9 yards gain to the BC.00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q2 14:56BC +12%
No Huddle-Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short right to #11 L.Bond caught at LOU00, for 6 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q3 7:34LOU +11%
Shotgun #7 M.Moss pass complete deep middle to #5 C.Lacy caught at BC.00, for 22 yards to the BC.00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q3 14:08BC +9%
Shotgun #3 G.James pass complete short left to #85 K.Chudzinski caught at LOU04, for 23 yards to the LOU00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
- Q1 4:49LOU +9%
#7 M.Moss rush middle for 1 yard gain to the BC.00 TOUCHDOWN
- Q2 1:02LOU +9%
Shotgun #1 I.Brown rush right for 62 yards gain to the BC.00 TOUCHDOWN, 1ST DOWN
FAQ
What was the final score of Boston College vs. Louisville?
Boston College 24, Louisville 38.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (LOU) was correct.
| BC | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| 360 | Total yards | 504 |
| 244 | Passing yards | 187 |
| 116 | Rushing yards | 317 |
| 20 | First downs | 14 |
| 6-16 | 3rd down | 3-11 |
| 1-4 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 23/46 | Comp/Att | 15/28 |
| 5.3 | Yards per pass | 6.7 |
| 3.2 | Yards per rush | 10.2 |
| 3 | Turnovers | 3 |
| 5-40 | Penalties | 6-45 |
| 35:44 | Possession | 24:16 |
Costliest call
Q4 4:44 LOU punt on 4th & 1 at LOU 34. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.62 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 1:49LOUKeyjuan Brown 67 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)24–38
- Q4 6:17BCJeremiah Franklin 21 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)24–31
- Q4 8:13LOUCooper Ranvier 41 Yd Field Goal 17–31
- Q3 7:34LOUCaullin Lacy 22 Yd pass from Miller Moss (Cooper Ranvier Kick)17–28
- Q3 14:08BCKaelan Chudzinski 23 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)17–21
- Q2 1:02LOUIsaac Brown 62 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)10–21
- Q2 1:42LOUMiller Moss 9 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)10–14
- Q2 14:56BCLewis Bond 6 Yd pass from Grayson James (Luca Lombardo Kick)10–7
- Q1 4:49LOUMiller Moss 1 Yd Run (Cooper Ranvier Kick)3–7
- Q1 6:36BCLuca Lombardo 38 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (LOU Elo 1746, BC Elo 1291 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects LOU -20.6 (91% to win) — 4.9 points clear of BC's market line of -25.5. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profilesLouisville leads 11–7 · Louisville has won 3 straight · 39% have been one-possession games
| BC | LOU | |
|---|---|---|
| -10.0 (#95) | CORE overall | +18.6 (#18) |
| -1 / +9 | offense / defense | +5 / -14 |
| 1.81 | points / drive | 2.32 |
| 3.19 | allowed / drive | 1.71 |
| 28% | three-and-outs | 25% |
| +7 | pass over expected | +9 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →