Arizona State vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 10:05UTAHByrd Ficklin 4 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–42
- Q3 0:45UTAHDevon Dampier 9 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–35
- Q3 4:32ASUJordyn Tyson 3 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–28
- Q3 11:00UTAHNaQuari Rogers 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)3–28
- Q2 1:04UTAHNaQuari Rogers 22 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:27UTAHDevon Dampier 24 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:34ASUJesus Gomez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:56UTAHDevon Dampier 12 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- ASU played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and UTAH did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.7 vs 3rd & 4.6
- PassJeff Sims 18/38, 124 YDS
- RushRaleek Brown 14 CAR, 67 YDS
- RecJordyn Tyson 8 REC, 40 YDS
- PassDevon Dampier 7/12, 104 YDS
- RushDevon Dampier 10 CAR, 120 YDS, 3 TD
- RecRyan Davis 3 REC, 68 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsUTAH up 25 entering the 4th quarter. Across 584 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 11:27UTAH +19%
Devon Dampier 24 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- Q1 9:56UTAH +17%
Devon Dampier 12 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- Q2 1:04UTAH +14%
NaQuari Rogers 22 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)
- Q1 2:34ASU +8%
Devon Dampier pass incomplete to Larry Simmons
- Q1 2:34ASU +8%
J. Gomez 38 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Utah?
Arizona State 10, Utah 42.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (UTAH) was correct.
| ASU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 273 | Total yards | 412 |
| 124 | Passing yards | 136 |
| 149 | Rushing yards | 276 |
| 23 | First downs | 23 |
| 7-18 | 3rd down | 4-8 |
| 4-5 | 4th down | 2-2 |
| 18/38 | Comp/Att | 8/13 |
| 3.3 | Yards per pass | 10.5 |
| 3.7 | Yards per rush | 6.6 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 7-57 | Penalties | 4-45 |
| 36:26 | Possession | 23:34 |
Costliest call
Q4 15:00 ASU go for it on 4th & 4 at ASU 31. The model preferred punt, a gap of 0.11 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:05UTAHByrd Ficklin 4 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–42
- Q3 0:45UTAHDevon Dampier 9 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)10–35
- Q3 4:32ASUJordyn Tyson 3 Yd Run (Jesus Gomez Kick)10–28
- Q3 11:00UTAHNaQuari Rogers 2 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)3–28
- Q2 1:04UTAHNaQuari Rogers 22 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)3–21
- Q2 11:27UTAHDevon Dampier 24 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)3–14
- Q1 2:34ASUJesus Gomez 38 Yd Field Goal 3–7
- Q1 9:56UTAHDevon Dampier 12 Yd Run (Dillon Curtis Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1680, ASU Elo 1722 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -0.7 (53% to win) — 8.3 points clear of ASU's market line of -9. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#128 of 129 in 2025 by longest odds · #34 of 57 in 2025 by biggest poll gap.
The 2025 upset archive →Arizona State leads 23–13 · 28% have been one-possession games
| ASU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| +8.2 (#44) | CORE overall | +29.1 (#7) |
| +2 / -6 | offense / defense | +19 / -10 |
| 2.12 | points / drive | 3.52 |
| 2.22 | allowed / drive | 1.62 |
| 24% | three-and-outs | 18% |
| -2 | pass over expected | -4 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →