App State vs. Boise State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
APPTeam statsBOIS
- Q4 10:21BOISBoen Phelps 33 Yd Interception Return (Colton Boomer Kick)14–47
- Q4 10:47BOISLatrell Caples 34 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)14–40
- Q3 1:24BOISQuinton Brown 29 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–33
- Q3 5:59BOISColton Boomer 40 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q3 10:40APPJaquari Lewis 3 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:05BOISColton Boomer 25 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 1:16APPDalton Stroman 7 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:07BOISBen Ford 14 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:49BOISA'Marion McCoy 26 Yd Interception Return (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:49BOISLatrell Caples 10 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
How the model called it
What the numbers say
- APP played behind the sticks — third downs that long convert rarely, and BOIS did not face the same ones. 3rd & 8.5 vs 3rd & 5.5
- BOIS lived on explosives rather than sustaining drives — a profile that vanished once those chunk plays were tackled. 15% explosive on a 40% success rate
- PassAJ Swann 11/24, 64 YDS, 1 TD, 2 INT
- RushRashod Dubinion 17 CAR, 113 YDS
- RecIzayah Cummings 3 REC, 20 YDS
- PassMaddux Madsen 25/37, 321 YDS, 4 TD
- RushSire Gaines 12 CAR, 69 YDS
- RecLatrell Caples 5 REC, 84 YDS, 2 TD
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsBOIS up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q1 9:49BOIS +12%
Maddux Madsen pass complete to Latrell Caples for 10 yds for a TD App State Penalty, Defensive Holding (Ethan Johnson) declined (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q1 1:49BOIS +9%
AJ Swann pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for 26 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
- Q3 10:40APP +7%
Jaquari Lewis run for 3 yds for a TD (Dominic De Freitas KICK)
- Q3 5:59BOIS +7%
Colton Boomer 40 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of App State vs. Boise State?
App State 14, Boise State 47.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
| APP | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| 184 | Total yards | 473 |
| 65 | Passing yards | 321 |
| 119 | Rushing yards | 152 |
| 9 | First downs | 25 |
| 2-13 | 3rd down | 9-18 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 2-3 |
| 12/28 | Comp/Att | 25/38 |
| 2.3 | Yards per pass | 8.4 |
| 4.1 | Yards per rush | 3.5 |
| 4 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 11-94 | Penalties | 5-55 |
| 21:50 | Possession | 38:10 |
Costliest call
Q1 0:44 APP punt on 4th & 2 at APP 33. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.25 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 10:21BOISBoen Phelps 33 Yd Interception Return (Colton Boomer Kick)14–47
- Q4 10:47BOISLatrell Caples 34 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)14–40
- Q3 1:24BOISQuinton Brown 29 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Two-Point Pass Conversion Failed)14–33
- Q3 5:59BOISColton Boomer 40 Yd Field Goal 14–27
- Q3 10:40APPJaquari Lewis 3 Yd Run (Dominic De Freitas Kick)14–24
- Q2 0:05BOISColton Boomer 25 Yd Field Goal 7–24
- Q2 1:16APPDalton Stroman 7 Yd pass from AJ Swann (Dominic De Freitas Kick)7–21
- Q2 7:07BOISBen Ford 14 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–21
- Q1 1:49BOISA'Marion McCoy 26 Yd Interception Return (Colton Boomer Kick)0–14
- Q1 9:49BOISLatrell Caples 10 Yd pass from Maddux Madsen (Colton Boomer Kick)0–7
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (BOIS Elo 1587, APP Elo 1390 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -10.3 (76% to win) — 6.7 points clear of APP's market line of -17. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 15 · through week 2 · drive simulation
Season form — 2025
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles| APP | BOIS | |
|---|---|---|
| -18.4 (#121) | CORE overall | +5.3 (#55) |
| -10 / +9 | offense / defense | -1 / -7 |
| 1.87 | points / drive | 2.37 |
| 2.68 | allowed / drive | 1.98 |
| 32% | three-and-outs | 22% |
| +6 | pass over expected | -1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →