Albertsons StadiumClosing line: BOIS -17 · BOIS covered
Sat, Sep 27, 11:30 PM
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| APP | 0 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 |
| BOIS | 14 | 10 | 9 | 14 | 47 |
Our model blends Elo ratings (BOIS Elo 1587, APP Elo 1390) plus home-field advantage. That projects BOIS -10.3 (78% to win) — 6.7 points of value on APP versus the market line of -17.
Cumulative margin after each quarter. Above the line = APP ahead, below = BOIS ahead.
Play-by-play win probability isn't available for this game — scoreboard margin by quarter shown instead.
BOIS up 19 entering the 4th quarter. Across 1,041 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
App State 14, Boise State 47.
Yes — the model's pick (BOIS) was correct.
Why trust the number?Gridpex's model is walk-forward validated on 2014–24, out-of-sample: +0.28 pts mean Closing Line Value and 53.5% beat the close. We report the record and validate every pick against closing line value.
Called it — I had BOIS pregame. ✓ We log the misses too, but not this one.
Boen Phelps 33 Yd Interception Return (Colton Boomer Kick)
AJ Swann pass intercepted A'Marion McCoy return for 26 yds for a TD (Colton Boomer KICK)
Max Cutforth sacked by Joseph Bakhole for a loss of 9 yards to the APP 20
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