Georgia State vs. Texas State: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
GASTTeam statsTXST
- Q4 2:52TXSTLincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Jordan McCloud Pass to Lincoln Pare for Two-Point Conversion)52–44
- Q4 7:05TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 17 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)52–36
- Q4 10:16GASTFreddie Brock 16 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)52–29
- Q4 12:25TXSTBeau Sparks 80 Yd Punt Return (Jordan McCloud Pass to Chris Dawn Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)45–29
- Q3 1:21GASTFreddie Brock 57 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)45–21
- Q2 0:00GASTBraeden McAlister 52 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q2 1:14GASTDorian Fleming 11 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:54GASTDorian Fleming 21 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)28–21
- Q2 8:40GASTDorian Fleming 30 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:26TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 6 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)14–21
- Q1 2:39GASTFreddie Brock 7 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:49TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 10 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:56TXSTTorrance Burgess Jr. 18 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:40GASTMichel Dukes 23 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
How the model called it
- PassChristian Veilleux 15/26, 285 YDS, 3 TD
- RushFreddie Brock IV 18 CAR, 133 YDS, 3 TD
- RecDorian Fleming 5 REC, 88 YDS, 3 TD
- PassJordan McCloud 28/44, 302 YDS, 3 TD, 2 INT
- RushIsmail Mahdi 15 CAR, 58 YDS
- RecJaden Williams 7 REC, 91 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsGAST up 24 entering the 4th quarter. Across 554 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 1:14GAST +24%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 11 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 1:54GAST +22%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 21 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q1 7:56TXST +11%
Torrance Burgess Jr. run for 18 yds for a TD (Mason Shipley KICK)
- Q1 11:40GAST +11%
Michel Dukes run for 23 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 8:40GAST +10%
Christian Veilleux pass complete to Dorian Fleming for 30 yds for a TD (Liam Rickman KICK)
- Q2 0:00GAST +10%
Braeden McAlister 52 yd FG GOOD
FAQ
What was the final score of Georgia State vs. Texas State?
Georgia State 52, Texas State 44.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked TXST, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| GAST | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| 507 | Total yards | 459 |
| 285 | Passing yards | 302 |
| 222 | Rushing yards | 157 |
| 27 | First downs | 26 |
| 5-12 | 3rd down | 3-13 |
| 1-1 | 4th down | 5-6 |
| 15/26 | Comp/Att | 28/44 |
| 11.0 | Yards per pass | 6.9 |
| 5.6 | Yards per rush | 4.2 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 2-12 | Penalties | 7-80 |
| 31:30 | Possession | 28:30 |
Costliest call
Q3 2:49 GAST punt on 4th & 6 at TXST 42. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:52TXSTLincoln Pare 3 Yd Run (Jordan McCloud Pass to Lincoln Pare for Two-Point Conversion)52–44
- Q4 7:05TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 17 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)52–36
- Q4 10:16GASTFreddie Brock 16 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)52–29
- Q4 12:25TXSTBeau Sparks 80 Yd Punt Return (Jordan McCloud Pass to Chris Dawn Jr. for Two-Point Conversion)45–29
- Q3 1:21GASTFreddie Brock 57 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)45–21
- Q2 0:00GASTBraeden McAlister 52 Yd Field Goal 38–21
- Q2 1:14GASTDorian Fleming 11 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)35–21
- Q2 1:54GASTDorian Fleming 21 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)28–21
- Q2 8:40GASTDorian Fleming 30 Yd pass from Christian Veilleux (Liam Rickman Kick)21–21
- Q2 12:26TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 6 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)14–21
- Q1 2:39GASTFreddie Brock 7 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)14–14
- Q1 5:49TXSTChris Dawn Jr. 10 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Mason Shipley Kick)7–14
- Q1 7:56TXSTTorrance Burgess Jr. 18 Yd Run (Mason Shipley Kick)7–7
- Q1 11:40GASTMichel Dukes 23 Yd Run (Liam Rickman Kick)7–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (TXST Elo 1693, GAST Elo 1238 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects TXST -20.6 (91% to win) — 2.4 points clear of GAST's market line of -23. That is a disagreement, not a betting edge — sides we favour have not covered at better than breakeven.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2024
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#21 of 120 in 2024 by biggest miss · #3 of 129 in 2024 by longest odds.
The 2024 upset archive →Georgia State leads 5–4 · Georgia State has won 2 straight · 44% have been one-possession games
| GAST | TXST | |
|---|---|---|
| -14.6 (#116) | CORE overall | +4.9 (#49) |
| -3 / +11 | offense / defense | +6 / +2 |
| 1.94 | points / drive | 3.12 |
| 3.07 | allowed / drive | 2.00 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 15% |
| +6 | pass over expected | +1 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →