Arizona State vs. Utah: Final Score & Recap
Final score, recap & advanced stats
ASUTeam statsUTAH
- Q4 2:41UTAHDevonta'e Henry-Cole 2 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)30–10
- Q4 7:31ASUJay Jay Wilson 20 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick)30–3
- Q3 4:45ASUManny Wilkins 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)23–3
- Q3 10:32UTAHMatt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal 16–3
- Q2 0:40ASUDemario Richard 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)16–0
- Q1 2:33ASUBrandon Ruiz 30 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 8:06ASUBrandon Ruiz 40 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:37ASUBrandon Ruiz 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
How the model called it
- PassManny Wilkins 19/29, 140 YDS, 1 INT
- RushDemario Richard 18 CAR, 93 YDS, 1 TD
- RecN'Keal Harry 8 REC, 72 YDS
- PassTyler Huntley 19/35, 155 YDS, 4 INT
- RushZack Moss 12 CAR, 49 YDS
- RecDarren Carrington 6 REC, 56 YDS
This exact spot, historically
empirical, no ratingsASU up 20 entering the 4th quarter. Across 818 historically comparable game states (within ±2 pts and ±3 min, from 3,056 games):
- Q2 0:40ASU +24%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
- Q3 4:45ASU +17%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brandon Ruiz KICK)
- Q1 2:33ASU +11%
Brandon Ruiz 30 yd FG GOOD
- Q3 10:32ASU +9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 3 yds to the ArzSt 39
- Q1 8:06ASU +8%
Brandon Ruiz 40 yd FG GOOD
- Q2 8:07ASU +7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Demario Richard
FAQ
What was the final score of Arizona State vs. Utah?
Arizona State 30, Utah 10.
Did Gridpex's model pick hit?
No — the model picked UTAH, which didn't hit. We report the misses too.
| ASU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| 345 | Total yards | 265 |
| 140 | Passing yards | 155 |
| 205 | Rushing yards | 110 |
| 21 | First downs | 18 |
| 8-16 | 3rd down | 3-10 |
| 0-0 | 4th down | 0-0 |
| 19/29 | Comp/Att | 19/35 |
| 4.8 | Yards per pass | 4.4 |
| 4.5 | Yards per rush | 4.4 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 4 |
| 2-25 | Penalties | 6-50 |
| 36:19 | Possession | 23:41 |
Costliest call
Q2 13:18 UTAH punt on 4th & 5 at ASU 44. The model preferred go for it, a gap of 0.55 points.
Drive chart
every possession, start to finish- Q4 2:41UTAHDevonta'e Henry-Cole 2 Yd Run (Matt Gay Kick)30–10
- Q4 7:31ASUJay Jay Wilson 20 Yd Interception Return (Brandon Ruiz Kick)30–3
- Q3 4:45ASUManny Wilkins 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)23–3
- Q3 10:32UTAHMatt Gay 53 Yd Field Goal 16–3
- Q2 0:40ASUDemario Richard 1 Yd Run (Brandon Ruiz Kick)16–0
- Q1 2:33ASUBrandon Ruiz 30 Yd Field Goal 9–0
- Q1 8:06ASUBrandon Ruiz 40 Yd Field Goal 6–0
- Q1 10:37ASUBrandon Ruiz 47 Yd Field Goal 3–0
Model prediction
how the number is builtOur model simulates the game drive by drive from each side's opponent-adjusted efficiency (UTAH Elo 1687, ASU Elo 1453 for reference), with home-field advantage. That projects UTAH -11.8 (79% to win), essentially in line with the market.
Why that percentage is worth reading: across 604 graded in-season games, the calls this model put near 58% came in at 58.2%. The full calibration table is published, bin by bin. Early in the season the cold-start path runs instead and calibrates less well (Brier 0.2028 against 0.1889).
Model as of Sep 1 · through week 1 · drive simulation
Season form — 2017
nationally rankedThe matchup, in context
series history + adjusted profiles#25 of 107 in 2017 by biggest miss · #41 of 126 in 2017 by longest odds.
The 2017 upset archive →Arizona State leads 23–13 · 28% have been one-possession games
| ASU | UTAH | |
|---|---|---|
| -3.0 (#70) | CORE overall | +5.8 (#48) |
| +2 / +5 | offense / defense | +0 / -5 |
| 2.40 | points / drive | 2.24 |
| 2.42 | allowed / drive | 1.85 |
| 29% | three-and-outs | 23% |
| -1 | pass over expected | +2 |
Bold is the side ahead. CORE strips the situation from every play and solves the schedule out across the league, so these compare two teams that never met.
Key matchups
The analyst read: each team's offense splits crossed against the opponent's defense, with the edges called out.
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Where this number comes from. Every projection on this page is produced by the same model, run before kickoff on opponent-adjusted efficiency, power ratings and situational data — walk-forward validated on eleven seasons and never adjusted after the fact. How the model works →