#10Ty Robinson

WR·Ball State·2025

Ty Robinson is a Slot Specialist WR for Ball State.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Ty Robinson's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Receiving

11 Receptions113 Rec yards0 Rec TD10.3 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency100
Volume13
Explosiveness22
Consistency52
Pass-Down53

Player type

Slot Specialist WR

The offense's primary passing-down weapon — routes, separation, and reliability on 3rd down define this role.

3rd-down converterRoute technicianHigh passing-down share

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)100th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency52th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among WRs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸Limited usage share suggests a rotational or specialist role.
▸4 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Peak game: 2.00 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Auburn (SP+ 12).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Tyler Buchner	Notre Dame	2021	51	0.250	0.3	12.8
Brandon Chatman	Navy	2025	52	0.230	0.6	12.0
Samajie Grant	Arizona	2016	62	0.250	0.3	15.5
Justin Lynch	Temple	2021	63	0.240	0.3	15.1
Nick Nash	San José State	2021	45	0.310	0.5	14.0

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
1	@Purdue	L0-31	-6.1	2	9	4.5	0	7	-0.40
2	@Auburn	L3-42	11.6	1	16	16.0	0	16	2.00
7	@Western Michigan	L0-42	-1.4	2	21	10.5	0	15	0.23
8	vsAkron	W42-28	-13.9	—	—	—	—	—	0.28
9	@Northern Illinois	L7-21	-16.7	3	37	12.3	0	16	1.39
11	vsKent State	W17-13	-19.3	1	21	21.0	0	21	0.50
12	vsEastern Michigan	L9-24	-14.7	2	9	4.5	0	5	0.86
13	@Toledo	L9-38	6.0	—	—	—	—	—	-0.70

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

4.5%

Passing plays

10.5%

Rushing plays

0.0%

Standard downs

1.9%

Passing downs

9.0%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.22
Passing downs: 0.24
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.24 / —

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).