#36Matt Breida

RB·Georgia Southern·2015 20146.3 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Matt Breida is a 2-year Explosive Back for Georgia Southern. Matt's 2014 season ranks in the 98th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 175 plays — a elite rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Matt Breida's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2014 Production

Rushing

1485 Rush yards17 Rush TD171 Carries8.7 Yards/carry

Receiving

8 Receptions97 Rec yards1 Rec TD12.1 Yards/rec

Returns

2 Kick returns24 KR yards0 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2014 · vs RB peers

Efficiency98
Volume64
Explosiveness100
Consistency74
Receiving51

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)98th %ile · elite

Game-to-game consistency74th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Top-10% efficiency among RBs — elite opponent-adjusted EPA rate.
▸High game-to-game consistency — reliable floor each week.
▸9 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Particularly dangerous on passing downs — efficiency spikes in obvious pass situations.
▸Peak game: 1.65 EPA/play in Wk 9 vs Georgia State (SP+ -23).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2018	214	0.620	6.8	132.7
Devon Johnson	Marshall	2014	208	0.520	6.0	108.2
Darrell Henderson	Memphis	2018	226	0.590	7.3	133.3
Anthony Wales	Western Kentucky	2016	235	0.570	7.0	134.0
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@NC State	L23-24	8.1	10	87	8.7	1	—	—	—	0.42
2	vsSavannah State	W83-9	—	8	60	7.5	2	—	—	—	0.93
3	@Georgia Tech	L38-42	11.2	11	111	10.1	2	3	52	0	0.91
4	@South Alabama	W28-6	-4.3	21	187	8.9	2	—	—	—	0.68
5	vsApp State	W34-14	-8.3	12	135	11.3	1	—	—	—	0.41
6	@New Mexico State	W36-28	-23.3	15	96	6.4	0	—	—	—	0.08
7	vsIdaho	W47-24	-17.4	19	155	8.2	0	2	36	1	0.43
9	@Georgia State	W69-31	-22.8	12	201	16.8	4	—	—	—	1.65
10	vsTroy	W42-10	-15.9	16	72	4.5	0	1	-2	0	-0.01
11	@Texas State	W28-25	-7.4	11	120	10.9	2	—	—	—	0.59
12	@Navy	L19-52	3.4	17	210	12.4	2	2	11	0	0.51
14	vsUL Monroe	W22-16	-10.0	19	51	2.7	1	—	—	—	-0.14

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

22.5%

Passing plays

6.3%

Rushing plays

26.9%

Standard downs

25.3%

Passing downs

13.5%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.41
Passing downs: 0.80
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.79 / 0.45

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Georgia Southern	6.3	0.600	—	94.2
2015	Georgia Southern	4.5	0.430	-0.17	81.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.