#36Matt Breida

RB·Georgia Southern·2015 20144.5 pts line valueDay 2 (Rds 2–3)

Matt Breida is a 2-year Explosive Back for Georgia Southern. Matt's 2015 season ranks in the 88th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 199 plays — a above-average rate for the RB.

What projects, and what doesn't · RBs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.52
Beats guessing the RB average by 18%. n=4,219 RB seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.10
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=3,575 RB seasons
Total EPA (value)0.41
Beats guessing the RB average by 9%. n=3,575 RB seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Matt Breida's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2015 Production

Rushing

1608 Rush yards17 Rush TD203 Carries7.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

3 Receptions6 Rec yards0 Rec TD2.0 Yards/rec

Performance Analysis · 2015 · vs RB peers

Efficiency88
Volume68
Explosiveness98
Consistency64
Receiving28

Player type

Explosive Back

Elite per-carry efficiency — breaks big runs and creates chunk plays at a top rate while in a limited role.

Big-play threatHigh EPA per carryCapitalises on opportunities

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)88th %ile · above avg

Game-to-game consistency64th %ile · average

Key findings

▸Above-average efficiency for the RB position (88th percentile).
▸6 high-impact games (EPA/play > 0.4) this season — elite ceiling.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.54 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 1.41 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Western Michigan (SP+ 5).

Historical Comparables · RB · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
Travis Etienne	Clemson	2019	213	0.470	4.7	100.1
Clyde Edwards-Helaire	LSU	2019	216	0.490	5.0	105.8
Saquon Barkley	Penn State	2017	240	0.410	5.2	98.4
Nick Wilson	Arizona	2014	250	0.410	5.2	102.5
Dalvin Cook	Florida State	2015	228	0.450	5.8	102.6

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Car	Rush Yds	Avg	Rush TD	Rec	Rec Yds	Rec TD	EPA/play
1	@West Virginia	L0-44	12.9	17	70	4.1	0	—	—	—	-0.13
2	vsWestern Michigan	W43-17	4.9	11	176	16.0	4	—	—	—	1.41
3	vsThe Citadel	W48-13	—	13	164	12.6	2	—	—	—	0.80
4	@Idaho	W44-20	-12.2	12	179	14.9	2	—	—	—	0.84
5	@UL Monroe	W51-31	-14.7	19	149	7.8	2	—	—	—	0.83
7	vsNew Mexico State	W56-26	-18.6	13	137	10.5	1	—	—	—	0.37
8	@App State	L13-31	7.9	14	78	5.6	0	1	-1	0	0.07
9	vsTexas State	W37-13	-15.5	23	205	8.9	2	1	10	0	0.43
11	@Troy	W45-10	-7.0	17	84	4.9	1	—	—	—	0.24
12	@Georgia	L17-23	16.8	20	66	3.3	0	1	-3	0	-0.27
13	vsSouth Alabama	W55-17	-10.4	21	187	8.9	2	—	—	—	0.51
14	vsGeorgia State	L7-34	-6.7	8	45	5.6	0	—	—	—	-0.05
1	vsBowling Green	W58-27	7.5	15	68	4.5	1	—	—	—	0.03

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

23.7%

Passing plays

3.6%

Rushing plays

28.2%

Standard downs

27.8%

Passing downs

13.8%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.38
Passing downs: 0.30
Pass / Rush EPA: -0.48 / 0.39

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).

Career · rolling EPA, game by game

Per-game EPA5-game avg

EPA per play · 2014 — 2015 · 25 games

Season	Team	Line value	WEPA/play	YoY Δ	Total EPA
2014	Georgia Southern	6.3	0.600	—	94.2
2015	Georgia Southern	4.5	0.430	-0.17	81.7

Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.