#0Keith Reynolds

WR·Miami (OH)·2025

Keith Reynolds is a Versatile WR for Miami (OH). Keith's 2025 season ranks in the 33th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 84 plays — a developing rate for the WR.

What projects, and what doesn't · WRs · held out 2019-2025

How well one season predicts the next, measured on seasons the model never trained on. 1.00 would be perfectly predictable; 0.00 means last year told us nothing.

Usage share (volume)0.47
Beats guessing the WR average by 16%. n=6,302 WR seasons
EPA per play (efficiency)0.09
Not projectable — we do not forecast this. n=5,767 WR seasons
Total EPA (value)0.45
Beats guessing the WR average by 12%. n=5,767 WR seasons

Across all positions, usage carries year to year at 0.47 and efficiency at 0.07. So Keith Reynolds's projection is a projection of opportunity — how much of the offense he runs through. How well he converts it is something this model does not claim to know a year in advance, and the number above is why.

2025 Production

Rushing

186 Rush yards0 Rush TD27 Carries6.9 Yards/carry

Receiving

36 Receptions352 Rec yards1 Rec TD9.8 Yards/rec

Returns

16 Kick returns456 KR yards1 KR TD

Performance Analysis · 2025 · vs WR peers

Efficiency33
Volume29
Explosiveness19
Consistency0
Pass-Down69

Player type

Versatile WR

Balanced profile without a single dominant trait — contributes across multiple dimensions.

Balanced usageMulti-role

Peer percentiles

Opponent-adjusted EPA (WEPA/play)33th %ile · below avg

Game-to-game consistency0th %ile · below avg

Key findings

▸Below-average efficiency vs WR peers — value comes through volume, not per-play impact.
▸High game-to-game variance — boom-or-bust profile.
▸Production faded as the season progressed — 0.23 EPA/play decline from first to second half.
▸Peak game: 0.96 EPA/play in Wk 2 vs Rutgers (SP+ 1).

NIL Market Tier· 2025

On3 valuation ↗

Starter

Meaningful starter. Local collective + position-group deals.

Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.

Historical Comparables · WR · efficiency + volume + value

Players from 2013–2025 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.

Player	Team	Yr	Plays	WEPA/play	Line val	Total EPA
De'Michael Harris	Southern Miss	2019	117	0.130	0.7	15.2
Amare Jones	Tulane	2020	71	0.180	0.0	12.8
Hyleck Foster	Marshall	2015	101	0.180	0.5	18.2
Davis Bryson	Kennesaw State	2024	97	0.200	0.0	19.4
Eli Heidenreich	Navy	2025	70	0.220	0.8	15.4

Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.

Game Log · box score + EPA, week by week

EPA per play · x-axis: weekabove 0 = added points · below = lost

Wk	Opponent	Result	Opp SP+	Rec	Rec Yds	Avg	Rec TD	Long	EPA/play
2	@Rutgers	L17-45	1.0	7	120	17.1	0	69	0.96
4	vsUNLV	L38-41	4.3	1	3	3.0	1	3	0.18
5	vsLindenwood	W38-0	—	3	26	8.7	0	14	0.21
6	@Northern Illinois	W25-14	-16.7	5	19	3.8	0	7	-0.17
7	@Akron	W20-7	-13.9	7	48	6.9	0	16	0.12
8	vsEastern Michigan	W44-30	-14.7	1	14	14.0	0	14	-0.48
9	vsWestern Michigan	W26-17	-1.4	2	29	14.5	0	17	0.27
11	@Ohio	L20-24	-4.0	3	10	3.3	0	6	-0.23
12	vsToledo	L3-24	6.0	1	11	11.0	0	11	-0.62
13	@Buffalo	W37-20	-7.5	3	15	5.0	0	8	-0.19
14	vsBall State	W45-24	-23.0	1	44	44.0	0	44	0.53
15	vsWestern Michigan	L13-23	-1.4	1	9	9.0	0	9	0.05
20	vsFresno State	L3-18	1.8	1	4	4.0	0	4	—

Usage & Situational · Pro

Snap-share proxy

Overall

10.3%

Passing plays

15.8%

Rushing plays

5.9%

Standard downs

10.2%

Passing downs

10.3%

EPA by down type

Standard downs: 0.04
Passing downs: 0.15
Pass / Rush EPA: 0.10 / 0.02

Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).