Eli Heidenreich is a Vertical Threat WR for Navy. Eli's 2025 season ranks in the 100th percentile nationally by opponent-adjusted EPA per play across 145 plays — a elite rate for the WR.
Regressed toward the WR mean. Model correlation r≈0.47 on a 2019-2025 walk-forward — volume only; efficiency not projected.
Elite deep receiver who stretches the field. Wins downfield, commands safety attention, and creates the threat that opens underneath routes.
Top-3 player at position nationally. Collective + national brand deals.
Tier is a model estimate based on position, school brand, performance rank, and usage — not a reported deal. NIL deals are private. For a real market valuation, see On3's NIL profile, which factors in social following and actual deal tracking.
Players from 2014–2024 matched on EPA efficiency, play volume, and adjusted value tier — not just one metric.
| Player | Team | Yr | Plays | WEPA/play | Line val | Total EPA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Quadree Henderson | Pittsburgh | 2016 | 63 | 0.530 | 1.6 | 33.4 |
| Keytaon Thompson | Mississippi State | 2017 | 70 | 0.460 | 1.2 | 32.2 |
| DeAndre Hughes | Air Force | 2021 | 60 | 0.470 | 1.3 | 28.2 |
| Savion Williams | TCU | 2024 | 56 | 0.450 | 1.1 | 25.2 |
| Javion Posey | Florida Atlantic | 2020 | 53 | 0.450 | 1.4 | 23.8 |
Comps are statistical — efficiency, volume, and value tier all factor in. Style and conference context differ.
| Wk | Opponent | Result | Opp SP+ | Rec | Rec Yds | Avg | Rec TD | Long | EPA/play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vsVMI | W52-7 | — | 6 | 65 | 10.8 | 1 | 35 | 0.45 |
| 2 | vsUAB | W38-24 | -15.8 | 2 | 21 | 10.5 | 0 | 13 | 0.85 |
| 3 | @Tulsa | W42-23 | -10.0 | 2 | 40 | 20.0 | 0 | 35 |
Usage = share of team plays (CFBD has no true snap counts).
Chart shows per-game EPA (bars) and rolling 5-game average (line). Season breaks marked with dashed lines. Line value = est. points over replacement per game.
Rec 5 · Rec Yds 64 · Avg 12.8 · Rec TD 1
| 0.86 |
| 5 | vsRice | W21-13 | -14.8 | 2 | 44 | 22.0 | 0 | 29 | 0.20 |
| 6 | vsAir Force | W34-31 | -3.2 | 8 | 243 | 30.4 | 3 | 80 | 3.09 |
| 7 | @Temple | W32-31 | -5.1 | 3 | 72 | 24.0 | 0 | 35 | 0.21 |
| 9 | vsFlorida Atlantic | W42-32 | -8.7 | 2 | 22 | 11.0 | 0 | 19 | — |
| 10 | @North Texas | L17-31 | 13.8 | 6 | 68 | 11.3 | 0 | 29 | 0.38 |
| 11 | @Notre Dame | L10-49 | 24.4 | 2 | 20 | 10.0 | 0 | 17 | 0.18 |
| 12 | vsSouth Florida | W41-38 | 11.6 | 5 | 146 | 29.2 | 0 | 82 | 0.33 |
| 14 | @Memphis | W28-17 | 7.6 | 2 | 64 | 32.0 | 0 | 46 | 0.46 |
| 16 | vsArmy | W17-16 | 0.8 | 6 | 72 | 12.0 | 1 | 21 | 0.73 |
| 1 | vsCincinnati | W35-13 | 4.5 | 5 | 64 | 12.8 | 1 | 26 | 0.23 |
